Suomen Cup
— Finland
Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 15:30 •
Urheilupuisto N
Expected Goals
3.06 (league 1.31)
0.05 (league 3.24)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 85.6% | 5.2% | 0.2% |
best score tips
3 - 0
21.3%
2 - 0
20.9%
4 - 0
16.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Lahti | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Union Plaani | 0 | 4.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 20.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 21.3% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 16.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 9.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Lahti carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 58 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Union Plaani +16.0, Lahti +10.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Union Plaani
vs
Lahti
Elo gapLahti +58
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo3148
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3148
Elo home share
42%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Union Plaani | Lahti |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1527.7 | 1620.3 |
| Form Elo | 1599.7 | 1665.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.7 | 1523.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1559.6 | 1619.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1472.6 | 1597.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +16.0 | +10.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Union Plaani last-5 Elo change: +16.0; Lahti last-5 Elo change: +10.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Union Plaani | Lahti |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 1 | 1 |
| Form | 100% | 100% |
| Attack | 17% | 13% |
| Defense | 100% | 96% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
7.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Union Plaani | Lahti | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Wins | — | 100% | 100% | — | 100% | 100% |
| Draws | — | 0% | 0% | — | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | — | 0% | 0% | — | 0% | 0% |
Union PlaaniW
LahtiW
League goals
| Metric | Union Plaani | Lahti | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| GA total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Union Plaani | Lahti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Union Plaani | Lahti | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Union Plaani | Lahti |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Union Plaani | Lahti |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-4 | — | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Union Plaani | Lahti |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 100% | 0% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 53.5% | 46.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…