Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.44)
1.92 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.7% | 22.0% | 45.4% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.3%
1 - 2
8.9%
2 - 1
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Ballkani | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Drenica Skënderaj | 0 | 3.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Drenica Skënderaj +30.7, Ballkani -8.8.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Drenica Skënderaj
vs
Ballkani
Elo gapBallkani +7
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo3069.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3069.4
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1513.7 | 1555.7 |
| Form Elo | 1538.4 | 1542.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1510.1 | 1500.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1456.3 | 1633 |
| Defense Elo | 1513.3 | 1507.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +30.7 | -8.8 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Drenica Skënderaj last-5 Elo change: +30.7; Ballkani last-5 Elo change: -8.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 47% |
| Attack | 37% | 32% |
| Defense | 74% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 14 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 40% | 36% | 38% | 57% | 40% | 48% |
| Draws | 33% | 0% | 17% | 29% | 20% | 24% |
| Loses | 27% | 64% | 45% | 14% | 40% | 28% |
Drenica SkënderajDWLWDWLLLLWWLLLWLDLLLDWWLDWWW
BallkaniDDWWDWWLWDWDLLWWWDWLLWLWWLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 11 | 36 | 29 | 23 | 52 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 21 | 21 | 42 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 72% | 83% | 69% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 45% | 52% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 21% | 17% | 28% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 10% | 7% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 2-3 | 6-1 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 2-4 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Drenica Skënderaj | Ballkani |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 54% | 46% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 22% | 78% |
| Total | 42.8% | 57.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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