1. Division
— Cyprus
Sat, May 2 2026 • 16:00 •
GSP Stadium
Expected Goals
1.78 (league 1.48)
0.31 (league 1.15)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 72.9% | 20.2% | 5.9% |
best score tips
1 - 0
21.9%
2 - 0
19.5%
0 - 0
12.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Aris | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Omonia Nicosia | 0 | 12.3% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 21.9% | 6.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 19.5% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.6% | 3.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Omonia Nicosia carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 177 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Omonia Nicosia +39.6, Aris +0.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Omonia Nicosia
vs
Aris
Elo gapOmonia Nicosia +177
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3267.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3267.5
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Omonia Nicosia | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1704.7 | 1562.8 |
| Form Elo | 1729.5 | 1560.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1607.9 | 1507.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1788.3 | 1659.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1705.6 | 1572.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +39.6 | +0.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Omonia Nicosia last-5 Elo change: +39.6; Aris last-5 Elo change: +0.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Omonia Nicosia | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 33% |
| Attack | 61% | 39% |
| Defense | 78% | 61% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
79%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Omonia Nicosia | Aris | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 80% | 69% | 74% | 56% | 27% | 42% |
| Draws | 20% | 13% | 16% | 25% | 33% | 29% |
| Loses | 0% | 19% | 10% | 19% | 40% | 29% |
Omonia NicosiaLWWWWDWWWDLWWDWWWWWWWWLDWWDWWWW
ArisWWWLWDWDWWLWLWDDWWLLLDDDWLDLDWL
League goals
| Metric | Omonia Nicosia | Aris | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 36 | 38 | 74 | 37 | 18 | 55 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 5 | 16 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Omonia Nicosia | Aris | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 42% | 84% | 58% |
| 1.5 | 74% | 23% | 52% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 3% | 32% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 0% | 10% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Omonia Nicosia | Aris | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 11 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Omonia Nicosia | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 7 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 7 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Omonia Nicosia | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 8 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-5 | 4-0 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-0 | 3-5 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Omonia Nicosia | Aris |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 72% | 28% |
| Att | 61% | 39% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 84% | 16% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 68.8% | 31.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.52 @ Betano
Draw4.79 @ Pinnacle
Away5.30 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.65 @ Betano
No2.25 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.53 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.45 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
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