Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 20:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started
Expected Goals
0.24 (league 1.35) 1.38 (league 0.94)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
6.2% 26.9% 66.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
27.4%
0 - 0
19.9%
0 - 2
18.9%
Score & goals probability table
Marítimo
0 1 2 3 4 5
Atletico Avila FC 0 19.6% 27.2% 19.0% 8.8% 3.1% 0.9%
1 4.7% 6.5% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
2 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

Marítimo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 43 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atletico Avila FC -12.0, Marítimo +6.4.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Atletico Avila FC Elo 1480.7 · -12.0
vs
Marítimo Elo 1558.2 · +6.4
Elo gapMarítimo +43
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo3038.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3038.9
Elo home share 44%
Match tone Good Watch
Metric Atletico Avila FC Marítimo
Overall Elo1480.71558.2
Form Elo1468.51552
Home / Away Elo1482.61531.4
Attack Elo1453.91617.6
Defense Elo1522.91586.4
Last 5 Elo change-12.0+6.4

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Atletico Avila FC last-5 Elo change: -12.0; Marítimo last-5 Elo change: +6.4.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAtletico Avila FCMarítimo
Played55
Form27%53%
Attack25%58%
Defense67%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)3 | 0.67 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 0.84 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

44%
FT probability

2.5+

31%
FT probability

3.5+

22%
FT probability

BTTS

47%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Atletico Avila FC Marítimo
HATHAT
Played347347
Wins0%0%0%0%50%29%
Draws33%100%71%100%0%43%
Loses67%0%29%0%50%29%
Atletico Avila FCDLDDLDD
MarítimoDLDWWDL

League goals

Metric Atletico Avila FC Marítimo
HATHAT
GF total033257
GF avg0.00.80.40.71.31.0
GA total336235
GA avg1.00.80.90.70.80.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAtletico Avila FCMarítimo
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.529%57%71%57%
1.514%29%14%14%
2.50%0%14%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAtletico Avila FCMarítimo
HATHAT
Clean sheets123123
Failed to score325112

Penalties

MetricAtletico Avila FCMarítimo
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricAtletico Avila FCMarítimo
Wins02
Draws21
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins0-3
Biggest losses0-22-1
Goals For0213
Goals Against2212

Model comparison

MetricAtletico Avila FCMarítimo
Form33%67%
Att30%70%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h50%50%
Goals0%0%
Total40.8%59.3%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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