Expected Goals
0.24 (league 1.35)
1.38 (league 0.94)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | 26.9% | 66.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
27.4%
0 - 0
19.9%
0 - 2
18.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Marítimo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Atletico Avila FC | 0 | 19.6% | 27.2% | 19.0% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Marítimo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 43 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Atletico Avila FC -12.0, Marítimo +6.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Atletico Avila FC
vs
Marítimo
Elo gapMarítimo +43
Home / draw / away33% / 25% / 42%
Expected home share44%
Combined Elo3038.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3038.9
Elo home share
44%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Atletico Avila FC | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1480.7 | 1558.2 |
| Form Elo | 1468.5 | 1552 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1482.6 | 1531.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1453.9 | 1617.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1522.9 | 1586.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.0 | +6.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Atletico Avila FC last-5 Elo change: -12.0; Marítimo last-5 Elo change: +6.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Atletico Avila FC | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 25% | 58% |
| Defense | 67% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
44%
FT probability
2.5+
31%
FT probability
3.5+
22%
FT probability
BTTS
47%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Atletico Avila FC | Marítimo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wins | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 29% |
| Draws | 33% | 100% | 71% | 100% | 0% | 43% |
| Loses | 67% | 0% | 29% | 0% | 50% | 29% |
Atletico Avila FCDLDDLDD
MarítimoDLDWWDL
League goals
| Metric | Atletico Avila FC | Marítimo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Atletico Avila FC | Marítimo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 29% | 57% | 71% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 14% | 29% | 14% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Atletico Avila FC | Marítimo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Atletico Avila FC | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Atletico Avila FC | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | — | — | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | — | — | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Atletico Avila FC | Marítimo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 30% | 70% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 100% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 40.8% | 59.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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