Ligue 2 — Tunisia
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 14:30 • Venue TBA
Not Started

EM Mahdia

—

US Tataouine

Expected Goals
0.40 (league 1.41) 1.12 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
13.1% 32.9% 53.9%
best score tips
0 - 1
24.6%
0 - 0
22.0%
0 - 2
13.7%
Score & goals probability table
US Tataouine
0 1 2 3 4 5
EM Mahdia 0 22.0% 24.6% 13.7% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3%
1 8.7% 9.8% 5.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
2 1.7% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

US Tataouine carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 30 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: EM Mahdia -6.7, US Tataouine -2.3.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
EM Mahdia Elo 1468.3 · -6.7
vs
US Tataouine Elo 1533.5 · -2.3
Elo gapUS Tataouine +30
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3001.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3001.8
Elo home share 46%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric EM Mahdia US Tataouine
Overall Elo1468.31533.5
Form Elo1470.61535.4
Home / Away Elo1490.41515.4
Attack Elo1409.31487.4
Defense Elo1525.41588.6
Last 5 Elo change-6.7-2.3

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. EM Mahdia last-5 Elo change: -6.7; US Tataouine last-5 Elo change: -2.3.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEM MahdiaUS Tataouine
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack8%42%
Defense75%67%
Goals For (tot | avg)1 | 0.25 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.64 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

50%
FT probability

2.5+

35%
FT probability

3.5+

25%
FT probability

BTTS

55%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric EM Mahdia US Tataouine
HATHAT
Played111223121123
Wins36%17%26%58%45%52%
Draws27%58%43%25%27%26%
Loses36%25%30%17%27%22%
EM MahdiaWDDLLLWWDLDWLWLDDWLDDDD
US TataouineDWWWDWLWWLDWDWWDLWWLWDL

League goals

Metric EM Mahdia US Tataouine
HATHAT
GF total9817201131
GF avg0.80.70.71.71.01.3
GA total1010208816
GA avg0.90.80.90.70.70.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEM MahdiaUS Tataouine
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.548%57%83%43%
1.517%22%39%26%
2.54%9%13%0%
3.54%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEM MahdiaUS Tataouine
HATHAT
Clean sheets46107613
Failed to score4812134

Penalties

MetricEM MahdiaUS Tataouine
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total23

Streaks

MetricEM MahdiaUS Tataouine
Wins23
Draws21
Losses31

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-03-43-00-2
Biggest losses0-32-01-22-0
Goals For2432
Goals Against3322

Model comparison

MetricEM MahdiaUS Tataouine
Form36%64%
Att17%83%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution27%73%
H2h20%80%
Goals25%75%
Total30.3%69.7%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • EM Mahdia vs US Tataouine