Ligue 2 — Tunisia
Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 14:30 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Kerkennah

—

ES Hammam-Sousse

Expected Goals
0.60 (league 1.41) 1.61 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
13.5% 24.3% 61.6%
best score tips
0 - 1
17.7%
0 - 2
14.3%
0 - 0
11.0%
Score & goals probability table
ES Hammam-Sousse
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kerkennah 0 11.0% 17.7% 14.3% 7.7% 3.1% 1.0%
1 6.5% 10.6% 8.5% 4.6% 1.9% 0.6%
2 2.0% 3.1% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
3 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away lean

ES Hammam-Sousse carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 37 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kerkennah +12.5, ES Hammam-Sousse +36.2.

Lean confidence Upset risk: Medium-high Elo standalone
Kerkennah Elo 1512.4 · +12.5
vs
ES Hammam-Sousse Elo 1584.6 · +36.2
Elo gapES Hammam-Sousse +37
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3097
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away lean
Confidence band Lean confidence
Upset risk Medium-high
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3097
Elo home share 45%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Kerkennah ES Hammam-Sousse
Overall Elo1512.41584.6
Form Elo1520.41618.4
Home / Away Elo1499.31518
Attack Elo1480.91555.6
Defense Elo15761605.3
Last 5 Elo change+12.5+36.2

There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Kerkennah last-5 Elo change: +12.5; ES Hammam-Sousse last-5 Elo change: +36.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricKerkennahES Hammam-Sousse
Played55
Form53%87%
Attack58%58%
Defense75%100%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.47 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.60 | 0

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

64%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Kerkennah ES Hammam-Sousse
HATHAT
Played111223121123
Wins36%17%26%75%55%65%
Draws36%42%39%8%27%17%
Loses27%42%35%17%18%17%
KerkennahLLDDDWDLLDLDWDLWWLLWDDW
ES Hammam-SousseDDLLWWWWWLWLWWWWDWWWWWD

League goals

Metric Kerkennah ES Hammam-Sousse
HATHAT
GF total13922221436
GF avg1.20.81.01.81.31.6
GA total1114256814
GA avg1.01.21.10.50.70.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineKerkennahES Hammam-Sousse
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%70%87%39%
1.517%22%43%13%
2.59%17%26%9%
3.54%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricKerkennahES Hammam-Sousse
HATHAT
Clean sheets3478614
Failed to score268213

Penalties

MetricKerkennahES Hammam-Sousse
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total25

Streaks

MetricKerkennahES Hammam-Sousse
Wins25
Draws32
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-10-43-00-3
Biggest losses2-33-02-33-1
Goals For3433
Goals Against3333

Model comparison

MetricKerkennahES Hammam-Sousse
Form38%62%
Att50%50%
Def0%100%
Poisson Distribution28%72%
H2h0%100%
Goals25%75%
Total35.3%64.8%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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League page • Country page • Kerkennah vs ES Hammam-Sousse