Expected Goals
1.59 (league 1.41)
0.62 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.4% | 24.7% | 14.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.4%
2 - 0
13.9%
0 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Ariana | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Bouchamma | 0 | 10.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.4% | 10.8% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 13.9% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.4% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Ariana carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 27 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Bouchamma -14.2, Ariana +7.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Bouchamma
vs
Ariana
Elo gapAriana +27
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3011.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3011.3
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Bouchamma | Ariana |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1474.6 | 1536.7 |
| Form Elo | 1471.1 | 1543.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1507.8 | 1475 |
| Attack Elo | 1493.8 | 1548 |
| Defense Elo | 1494 | 1585.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -14.2 | +7.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Bouchamma last-5 Elo change: -14.2; Ariana last-5 Elo change: +7.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Bouchamma | Ariana |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 53% |
| Attack | 58% | 67% |
| Defense | 33% | 58% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
64%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Bouchamma | Ariana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 55% | 8% | 30% | 75% | 0% | 39% |
| Draws | 27% | 33% | 30% | 17% | 36% | 26% |
| Loses | 18% | 58% | 39% | 8% | 64% | 35% |
BouchammaDDDWLWLDLDLWDWLWWLDLLWL
ArianaLWDWWLDLLLWDWWLDLWDWDLW
League goals
| Metric | Bouchamma | Ariana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 9 | 27 | 20 | 6 | 26 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 11 | 18 | 29 | 9 | 15 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Bouchamma | Ariana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 70% | 65% | 70% |
| 1.5 | 22% | 39% | 35% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 13% | 13% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Bouchamma | Ariana | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Bouchamma | Ariana |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Bouchamma | Ariana |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-1 | 3-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Bouchamma | Ariana |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 38% | 62% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 45.6% | 54.4% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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