Ligue 2 — Tunisia
Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 14:30 • Venue TBA
Not Started

EGS Gafsa

—

Jendouba Sport

Expected Goals
0.94 (league 1.41) 0.68 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
39.9% 34.6% 25.5%
best score tips
0 - 0
19.8%
1 - 0
18.5%
0 - 1
13.5%
Score & goals probability table
Jendouba Sport
0 1 2 3 4 5
EGS Gafsa 0 19.8% 13.5% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
1 18.5% 12.7% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 8.7% 5.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
3 2.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

Jendouba Sport carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 63 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: EGS Gafsa -14.2, Jendouba Sport -7.8.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
EGS Gafsa Elo 1457.6 · -14.2
vs
Jendouba Sport Elo 1555.4 · -7.8
Elo gapJendouba Sport +63
Home / draw / away32% / 23% / 45%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo3013
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3013
Elo home share 41%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric EGS Gafsa Jendouba Sport
Overall Elo1457.61555.4
Form Elo1439.21548.9
Home / Away Elo1518.31515.1
Attack Elo1434.21609.9
Defense Elo1511.41595.7
Last 5 Elo change-14.2-7.8

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. EGS Gafsa last-5 Elo change: -14.2; Jendouba Sport last-5 Elo change: -7.8.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricEGS GafsaJendouba Sport
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack42%75%
Defense17%33%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

59%
FT probability

2.5+

42%
FT probability

3.5+

30%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric EGS Gafsa Jendouba Sport
HATHAT
Played111223121123
Wins45%17%30%42%18%30%
Draws36%17%26%42%55%48%
Loses18%67%43%17%27%22%
EGS GafsaDWDWLLDWLWLDWLDWLLLWLDL
Jendouba SportDDDDWWDDWDWDLLDDLWLLDWW

League goals

Metric EGS Gafsa Jendouba Sport
HATHAT
GF total12921181230
GF avg1.10.80.91.51.11.3
GA total5232891322
GA avg0.51.91.20.81.21.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineEGS GafsaJendouba Sport
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.565%57%74%61%
1.517%35%39%35%
2.59%17%13%0%
3.50%13%4%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricEGS GafsaJendouba Sport
HATHAT
Clean sheets7310729
Failed to score448336

Penalties

MetricEGS GafsaJendouba Sport
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total25

Streaks

MetricEGS GafsaJendouba Sport
Wins12
Draws14
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-00-14-01-3
Biggest losses1-24-01-22-0
Goals For3243
Goals Against2422

Model comparison

MetricEGS GafsaJendouba Sport
Form36%64%
Att36%64%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution60%40%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total44.0%56.0%
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

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League standings

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