Expected Goals
1.21 (league 1.41)
1.22 (league 0.81)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 35.9% | 27.5% | 36.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.0%
0 - 1
10.8%
1 - 0
10.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Stade Gabesien | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| AS Kasserine | 0 | 8.8% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.7% | 13.0% | 7.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
AS Kasserine carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 19 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: AS Kasserine +12.0, Stade Gabesien +2.6.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
AS Kasserine
vs
Stade Gabesien
Elo gapAS Kasserine +19
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3180.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3180.3
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | AS Kasserine | Stade Gabesien |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1582 | 1598.3 |
| Form Elo | 1595.5 | 1601.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1567.1 | 1528.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1539.7 | 1581.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1615.4 | 1613.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.0 | +2.6 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. AS Kasserine last-5 Elo change: +12.0; Stade Gabesien last-5 Elo change: +2.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | AS Kasserine | Stade Gabesien |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 67% |
| Attack | 67% | 50% |
| Defense | 75% | 75% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
63%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | AS Kasserine | Stade Gabesien | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 73% | 42% | 57% | 75% | 36% | 57% |
| Draws | 18% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 36% | 26% |
| Loses | 9% | 42% | 26% | 8% | 27% | 17% |
AS KasserineDLWLWWWDLWLWDWWWLWDWWWL
Stade GabesienWDDDWWLWWWWLWDDWWLLWWDW
League goals
| Metric | AS Kasserine | Stade Gabesien | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 10 | 29 | 24 | 15 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 8 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 17 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | AS Kasserine | Stade Gabesien | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 61% | 74% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 39% | 9% | 52% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 0% | 22% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | AS Kasserine | Stade Gabesien | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | AS Kasserine | Stade Gabesien |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | AS Kasserine | Stade Gabesien |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-4 | 4-0 | 2-6 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | AS Kasserine | Stade Gabesien |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 57.3% | 42.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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