Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 00:30 •
Draxhall Sports Complex
Expected Goals
1.01 (league 1.37)
0.76 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.3% | 32.8% | 26.8% |
best score tips
1 - 0
17.2%
0 - 0
17.0%
1 - 1
13.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Waterhouse | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mount Pleasant Academy | 0 | 17.0% | 13.0% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.2% | 13.1% | 5.0% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 8.7% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Mount Pleasant Academy carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 106 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Mount Pleasant Academy -7.7, Waterhouse +4.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Mount Pleasant Academy
vs
Waterhouse
Elo gapMount Pleasant Academy +106
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo3190.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3190.3
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Mount Pleasant Academy | Waterhouse |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1630.5 | 1559.8 |
| Form Elo | 1621.3 | 1571.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1589.6 | 1544.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1669.1 | 1479.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1703.3 | 1613.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.7 | +4.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Mount Pleasant Academy last-5 Elo change: -7.7; Waterhouse last-5 Elo change: +4.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mount Pleasant Academy | Waterhouse |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 52% | 24% |
| Defense | 67% | 86% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
65%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mount Pleasant Academy | Waterhouse | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 19 | 17 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 36 |
| Wins | 58% | 35% | 47% | 37% | 59% | 47% |
| Draws | 32% | 47% | 39% | 26% | 18% | 22% |
| Loses | 11% | 18% | 14% | 37% | 24% | 31% |
Mount Pleasant AcademyDDWDWDWWLWWDDWLWWWDDWLWDDWWWDLDWLDDW
WaterhouseWLWLLWDDDLLLWLDDDLWWWWDWWWLWWLWDWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Mount Pleasant Academy | Waterhouse | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 44 | 16 | 60 | 23 | 20 | 43 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 13 | 10 | 23 | 20 | 10 | 30 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mount Pleasant Academy | Waterhouse | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 56% | 81% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 42% | 8% | 19% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 0% | 11% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 0% | 6% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 8% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mount Pleasant Academy | Waterhouse | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 18 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mount Pleasant Academy | Waterhouse |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 57.14% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 3 | 42.86% |
| Total | 3 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mount Pleasant Academy | Waterhouse |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-3 | 5-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 1-0 | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mount Pleasant Academy | Waterhouse |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 30% | 70% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 55.3% | 44.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.98 @ Betano
Draw3.30 @ Betano
Away4.75 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.60 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.67 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.35 @ Unibet
No1.73 @ 10Bet
📊
League standings
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