Tue, Apr 28 2026 • 18:45 •
Attis Arena
Expected Goals
1.32 (league 1.55)
1.81 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 27.8% | 23.0% | 47.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
1 - 2
9.5%
0 - 1
7.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Southend | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Scunthorpe | 0 | 4.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 3.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Southend carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 25 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Scunthorpe -35.5, Southend +9.3.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Scunthorpe
vs
Southend
Elo gapSouthend +25
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3251.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3251.6
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1595.6 | 1656 |
| Form Elo | 1588 | 1664 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1568.3 | 1568.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1642.8 | 1713 |
| Defense Elo | 1545.4 | 1630 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -35.5 | +9.3 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Scunthorpe last-5 Elo change: -35.5; Southend last-5 Elo change: +9.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Attack | 13% | 81% |
| Defense | 75% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Southend | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 23 | 46 |
| Wins | 50% | 48% | 49% | 57% | 43% | 50% |
| Draws | 27% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 22% | 26% |
| Loses | 23% | 22% | 22% | 13% | 35% | 24% |
ScunthorpeWWWDDDWDWWLWDDWWLDLWWWWDWWWLLDLLDWLWWWDWDLWDL
SouthendWWDWDWLWDLLDWWWDLWWLLWWDWDLLWWLDDDWWLDWWWDWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Southend | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 37 | 40 | 77 | 41 | 42 | 83 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 28 | 34 | 62 | 19 | 28 | 47 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Scunthorpe | Southend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 82% | 87% | 63% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 31% | 50% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 16% | 30% | 7% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 4% | 7% | 2% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Southend | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 17 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 11 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 11 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 5-1 | 2-6 |
| Biggest losses | 3-6 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 4-3 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Scunthorpe | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 13% | 87% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 42% | 58% |
| Total | 40.8% | 59.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.55 @ Dafabet
Draw3.76 @ Pinnacle
Away2.01 @ Dafabet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.62 @ Betano
Under 2.52.35 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.53 @ William Hill
No2.40 @ William Hill
📊
League standings
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