Championship
— England
Mon, Apr 6 2026 • 14:00 •
Pride Park
Expected Goals
1.13 (league 1.36)
1.03 (league 1.14)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.8% | 29.4% | 32.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.4%
1 - 0
13.1%
0 - 1
11.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Stoke City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Derby | 0 | 11.6% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.1% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.4% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Derby | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 47% |
| Attack | 35% | 53% |
| Defense | 71% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
70%
FT probability
2.5+
49%
FT probability
3.5+
35%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Derby | Stoke City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 20 | 20 | 40 | 20 | 20 | 40 |
| Wins | 40% | 45% | 43% | 45% | 30% | 38% |
| Draws | 30% | 15% | 23% | 25% | 20% | 23% |
| Loses | 30% | 40% | 35% | 30% | 50% | 40% |
Form: Derby: LLDDWLDDDLWWWWWLWLLDWDDLWLWWDWLWLLWWLWWL • Stoke City: WWWLWLDDDWLWWWLLWLLLWLDLWWDLDLDLDWLLDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Derby | Stoke City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 31 | 58 | 31 | 17 | 48 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 25 | 26 | 51 | 21 | 22 | 43 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Derby | Stoke City | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 90% | 75% | 65% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 30% | 33% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 15% | 18% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Derby | Stoke City | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Derby | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Derby | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-1 | 0-5 | 5-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 3-5 | 4-2 | 0-2 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Derby | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 54% | 46% |
| Total | 53.2% | 46.8% |
Advice: Double chance : Derby or draw
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.92 @ Dafabet
Draw3.71 @ Pinnacle
Away4.24 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.97 @ Superbet
Under 2.52.01 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.82 @ Superbet
No2.10 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Derby
vs
Stoke City
Expected goals
1.13
Derby xG
League Avg: 1.36
Total
2.16
1.03
Stoke City xG
League Avg: 1.14
1x2 probabilities
Home
37.8%
Draw
29.4%
Away
32.6%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
13.4%
Tip
1 - 0
13.1%
Tip
0 - 1
11.9%
More chances
1.5+
70%
Chance
2.5+
49%
Chance
3.5+
35%
Chance
BTTS
69%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Derby = 1.13 (league 1.36), Stoke City = 1.03 (league 1.14)
| Stoke City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Derby | 0 | 11.6% | 11.9% | 6.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.1% | 13.4% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.4% | 7.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.8% · Draw 29.4% · Away win 32.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1