Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 16:00 •
Arena Arda
Expected Goals
2.76 (league 0.98)
0.91 (league 2.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 69.8% | 14.3% | 9.7% |
best score tips
2 - 0
9.7%
3 - 0
8.9%
2 - 1
8.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Arda Kardzhali | 0 | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.7% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 8.9% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Arda Kardzhali carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 53 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Arda Kardzhali +31.6, Lokomotiv Plovdiv +24.6.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Arda Kardzhali
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Elo gapArda Kardzhali +53
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3159.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3159.8
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1588.9 | 1570.9 |
| Form Elo | 1660.4 | 1624.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1525.4 | 1530.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1568.9 | 1480.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1629.9 | 1582.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +31.6 | +24.6 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Arda Kardzhali last-5 Elo change: +31.6; Lokomotiv Plovdiv last-5 Elo change: +24.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 100% | 100% |
| Attack | 62% | 54% |
| Defense | 77% | 92% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 2.7 | 7 | 2.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | — | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Draws | — | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | — | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Arda KardzhaliWWW
Lokomotiv PlovdivWWW
League goals
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| GF avg | 0.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 67% | 100% | 33% |
| 1.5 | 100% | 33% | 67% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | — | — | — |
| Goals For | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Arda Kardzhali | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 0% | 0% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 54.0% | 46.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.88 @ 1xBet
Draw3.14 @ Marathonbet
Away4.60 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.53 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.20 @ Bet365
No1.63 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Arda Kardzhali
vs
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Expected goals
2.76
Arda Kardzhali xG
League Avg: 0.98
Total
3.67
0.91
Lokomotiv Plovdiv xG
League Avg: 2.20
1x2 probabilities
Home
69.8%
Draw
14.3%
Away
9.7%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 0
9.7%
Tip
3 - 0
8.9%
Tip
2 - 1
8.8%
More chances
1.5+
66%
Chance
2.5+
47%
Chance
3.5+
33%
Chance
BTTS
74%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 2
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Arda Kardzhali = 2.76 (league 0.98), Lokomotiv Plovdiv = 0.91 (league 2.20)
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Arda Kardzhali | 0 | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 9.7% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 8.9% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 6.2% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 69.8% · Draw 14.3% · Away win 9.7%
vtt 1 , vtd1