Mon, Apr 20 2026 ā¢ 20:00 ā¢
Estadio Campeones Olimpicos
Expected Goals
1.06 (league 1.13)
1.27 (league 0.95)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.8% | 28.0% | 40.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 1
12.4%
1 - 0
10.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Cerro Largo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Boston River | 0 | 9.7% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Boston River carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 49 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Boston River -17.8, Cerro Largo +15.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Boston River
vs
Cerro Largo
Elo gapBoston River +49
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo2994.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2994.6
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Boston River | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1504.4 | 1490.2 |
| Form Elo | 1491.7 | 1510.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1515.3 | 1511 |
| Attack Elo | 1496.1 | 1461.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1562.8 | 1510.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -17.8 | +15.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Boston River last-5 Elo change: -17.8; Cerro Largo last-5 Elo change: +15.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Boston River | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 53% |
| Attack | 44% | 50% |
| Defense | 63% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
64%
FT probability
2.5+
45%
FT probability
3.5+
32%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Boston River | Cerro Largo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 11 |
| Wins | 17% | 40% | 27% | 40% | 33% | 36% |
| Draws | 17% | 20% | 18% | 20% | 17% | 18% |
| Loses | 67% | 40% | 55% | 40% | 50% | 45% |
Boston RiverLLDDLLWLWWL
Cerro LargoWLLLLWWLWDD
League goals
| Metric | Boston River | Cerro Largo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 7 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 14 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Boston River | Cerro Largo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 45% | 82% | 64% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 0% | 18% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Boston River | Cerro Largo | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Boston River | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Boston River | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-2 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-0 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Boston River | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 47% | 53% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 50.2% | 49.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.49 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.10 @ 10Bet
Away3.15 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.52.44 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.62 @ 10Bet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.00 @ William Hill
No1.80 @ 10Bet
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League standings
Loading standingsā¦
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Boston River
vs
Cerro Largo
Expected goals
1.06
Boston River xG
League Avg: 1.13
Total
2.33
1.27
Cerro Largo xG
League Avg: 0.95
1x2 probabilities
Home
30.8%
Draw
28.0%
Away
40.9%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
13.1%
Tip
0 - 1
12.4%
Tip
1 - 0
10.3%
More chances
1.5+
64%
Chance
2.5+
45%
Chance
3.5+
32%
Chance
BTTS
61%
Chance
šØ Cards
3 - 6
Exp.
Expected goals (Ī»): Boston River = 1.06 (league 1.13), Cerro Largo = 1.27 (league 0.94)
| Cerro Largo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Boston River | 0 | 9.7% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.7% Ā· Draw 27.9% Ā· Away win 41.0%
vtt 1 , vtd1