Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 16:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.30 (league 1.81)
4.16 (league 1.55)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% | 3.1% | 72.2% |
best score tips
0 - 4
14.5%
0 - 3
13.9%
0 - 5
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Bayern Munich W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Union Berlin W | 0 | 1.2% | 4.8% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 12.0% |
| 1 | 0.3% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Bayern Munich W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 217 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Union Berlin W +7.7, Bayern Munich W +32.5.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Union Berlin W
vs
Bayern Munich W
Elo gapBayern Munich W +217
Home / draw / away18% / 18% / 64%
Expected home share22%
Combined Elo3327.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3327.9
Elo home share
22%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Union Berlin W | Bayern Munich W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1537.8 | 1790.1 |
| Form Elo | 1541.8 | 1826.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1524.1 | 1626.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1695.3 | 1999.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1493.8 | 1708 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +7.7 | +32.5 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Union Berlin W last-5 Elo change: +7.7; Bayern Munich W last-5 Elo change: +32.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Union Berlin W | Bayern Munich W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 100% |
| Attack | 63% | 100% |
| Defense | 58% | 95% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 20 | 4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
5.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
6.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
79%
FT probability
3.5+
56%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Union Berlin W | Bayern Munich W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 11 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| Wins | 36% | 27% | 32% | 91% | 100% | 95% |
| Draws | 27% | 27% | 27% | 9% | 0% | 5% |
| Loses | 36% | 45% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
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Bayern Munich WWWDWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Union Berlin W | Bayern Munich W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 17 | 37 | 38 | 43 | 81 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| GA total | 17 | 25 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Union Berlin W | Bayern Munich W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 91% | 95% | 29% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 59% | 95% | 0% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 32% | 86% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 9% | 62% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 5% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Union Berlin W | Bayern Munich W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 15 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Union Berlin W | Bayern Munich W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | Union Berlin W | Bayern Munich W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 2-4 | 6-0 | 0-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-0 | — | — |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Union Berlin W | Bayern Munich W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 38% | 63% |
| Def | 11% | 89% |
| Poisson Distribution | 7% | 93% |
| H2h | 0% | 100% |
| Goals | 0% | 100% |
| Total | 23.5% | 77.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Union Berlin W
vs
Bayern Munich W
Expected goals
0.30
Union Berlin W xG
League Avg: 1.81
Total
4.45
4.16
Bayern Munich W xG
League Avg: 1.55
1x2 probabilities
Home
0.7%
Draw
3.1%
Away
72.2%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 4
14.5%
Tip
0 - 3
13.9%
Tip
0 - 5
12.0%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
79%
Chance
3.5+
56%
Chance
BTTS
76%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 2
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Union Berlin W = 0.30 (league 1.81), Bayern Munich W = 4.16 (league 1.55)
| Bayern Munich W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Union Berlin W | 0 | 1.2% | 4.8% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 14.5% | 12.0% |
| 1 | 0.3% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 0.7% · Draw 3.1% · Away win 72.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1