Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 23:30 •
BMO Field
Expected Goals
2.93 (league 1.23)
1.65 (league 0.97)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 56.2% | 16.4% | 19.1% |
best score tips
2 - 1
7.3%
3 - 1
7.1%
2 - 2
6.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Philadelphia Union | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Toronto FC | 0 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Toronto FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 78 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Toronto FC +4.9, Philadelphia Union -32.5.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Toronto FC
vs
Philadelphia Union
Elo gapToronto FC +78
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo2997.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2997.3
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1520 | 1477.3 |
| Form Elo | 1528.4 | 1453.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.2 | 1503.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1483.9 | 1475.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1551 | 1469.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +4.9 | -32.5 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Toronto FC last-5 Elo change: +4.9; Philadelphia Union last-5 Elo change: -32.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 27% |
| Attack | 56% | 28% |
| Defense | 56% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
82%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Wins | 40% | 33% | 38% | 0% | 25% | 13% |
| Draws | 60% | 0% | 38% | 25% | 0% | 13% |
| Loses | 0% | 67% | 25% | 75% | 75% | 75% |
Toronto FCLLWDWWDD
Philadelphia UnionLLLLLLWD
League goals
| Metric | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 8 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 88% | 63% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 50% | 13% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 38% | 0% | 13% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-1 | — | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-0 | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Toronto FC | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 58% | 42% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 60.7% | 39.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.45 @ Betano
Draw3.55 @ Unibet
Away2.95 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.02 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.70 @ Bet365
No2.20 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Toronto FC
vs
Philadelphia Union
Expected goals
2.93
Toronto FC xG
League Avg: 1.23
Total
4.58
1.65
Philadelphia Union xG
League Avg: 0.97
1x2 probabilities
Home
56.2%
Draw
16.4%
Away
19.1%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 1
7.3%
Tip
3 - 1
7.1%
Tip
2 - 2
6.0%
More chances
1.5+
86%
Chance
2.5+
61%
Chance
3.5+
43%
Chance
BTTS
82%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Toronto FC = 2.93 (league 1.23), Philadelphia Union = 1.65 (league 0.97)
| Philadelphia Union | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Toronto FC | 0 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 3.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 4.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 3.1% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 56.2% · Draw 16.4% · Away win 19.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1