1. Division
— Belarus
Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 14:30 •
City Stadium
Expected Goals
0.61 (league 1.64)
1.35 (league 1.48)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.8% | 28.2% | 54.7% |
best score tips
0 - 1
19.0%
0 - 0
14.0%
0 - 2
12.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Smorgon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ostrovets FC | 0 | 14.0% | 19.0% | 12.9% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Ostrovets FC carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 74 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Ostrovets FC -13.8, Smorgon -13.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Ostrovets FC
vs
Smorgon
Elo gapOstrovets FC +74
Home / draw / away47% / 22% / 31%
Expected home share60%
Combined Elo2956.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2956.5
Elo home share
60%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Ostrovets FC | Smorgon |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1497.5 | 1459 |
| Form Elo | 1462.8 | 1435.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1478 | 1484.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1557.8 | 1378.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1498.8 | 1489.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -13.8 | -13.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Ostrovets FC last-5 Elo change: -13.8; Smorgon last-5 Elo change: -13.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Ostrovets FC | Smorgon |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 3 | 3 |
| Form | 44% | 11% |
| Attack | 31% | 6% |
| Defense | 75% | 63% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1.7 | 1 | 0.3 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 1.3 | 6 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
84%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Ostrovets FC | Smorgon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Wins | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 100% | 33% |
| Loses | 100% | 0% | 33% | 100% | 0% | 67% |
Ostrovets FCDLW
SmorgonLDL
League goals
| Metric | Ostrovets FC | Smorgon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| GA total | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| GA avg | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Ostrovets FC | Smorgon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 67% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Ostrovets FC | Smorgon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Ostrovets FC | Smorgon |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Ostrovets FC | Smorgon |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 0 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | — | 1-3 | — | — |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | — | 0-3 | — |
| Goals For | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Ostrovets FC | Smorgon |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 80% | 20% |
| Att | 83% | 17% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 33% | 67% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 61.0% | 39.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Ostrovets FC
vs
Smorgon
Expected goals
0.61
Ostrovets FC xG
League Avg: 1.64
Total
1.96
1.35
Smorgon xG
League Avg: 1.48
1x2 probabilities
Home
16.8%
Draw
28.2%
Away
54.7%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
19.0%
Tip
0 - 0
14.0%
Tip
0 - 2
12.9%
More chances
1.5+
74%
Chance
2.5+
52%
Chance
3.5+
37%
Chance
BTTS
84%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 3
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Ostrovets FC = 0.61 (league 1.64), Smorgon = 1.35 (league 1.48)
| Smorgon | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Ostrovets FC | 0 | 14.0% | 19.0% | 12.9% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.8% · Draw 28.2% · Away win 54.7%
vtt 1 , vtd1