Esiliiga B
— Estonia
Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 16:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
3.29 (league 2.21)
0.69 (league 1.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 74.7% | 9.2% | 4.5% |
best score tips
3 - 0
11.1%
2 - 0
10.1%
4 - 0
9.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Tallinna Kalev II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tartu Kalev | 0 | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.1% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 9.1% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Tartu Kalev carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 236 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tartu Kalev +46.2, Tallinna Kalev II -30.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Tartu Kalev
vs
Tallinna Kalev II
Elo gapTartu Kalev +236
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share80%
Combined Elo2960.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2960.7
Elo home share
80%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Tartu Kalev | Tallinna Kalev II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1580.9 | 1379.8 |
| Form Elo | 1608.2 | 1344.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1516.2 | 1452.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1731.1 | 1507.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1496.8 | 1227.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +46.2 | -30.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Tartu Kalev last-5 Elo change: +46.2; Tallinna Kalev II last-5 Elo change: -30.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tartu Kalev | Tallinna Kalev II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Attack | 100% | 42% |
| Defense | 92% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 15 | 3 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tartu Kalev | Tallinna Kalev II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 100% | 67% | 83% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 17% | 67% | 100% | 83% |
Tartu KalevLWWWWW
Tallinna Kalev IIWLLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Tartu Kalev | Tallinna Kalev II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 8 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| GF avg | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 0 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 16 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tartu Kalev | Tallinna Kalev II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 33% | 83% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 17% | 33% | 83% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 17% | 50% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tartu Kalev | Tallinna Kalev II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tartu Kalev | Tallinna Kalev II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tartu Kalev | Tallinna Kalev II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 0 | 1 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-3 | 5-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | — | 5-1 | 0-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tartu Kalev | Tallinna Kalev II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 100% | 0% |
| Att | 71% | 29% |
| Def | 94% | 6% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 76.3% | 23.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Tartu Kalev
vs
Tallinna Kalev II
Expected goals
3.29
Tartu Kalev xG
League Avg: 2.21
Total
3.98
0.69
Tallinna Kalev II xG
League Avg: 1.88
1x2 probabilities
Home
74.7%
Draw
9.2%
Away
4.5%
Best score tips
Tip
3 - 0
11.1%
Tip
2 - 0
10.1%
Tip
4 - 0
9.1%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
72%
Chance
3.5+
51%
Chance
BTTS
76%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Tartu Kalev = 3.29 (league 2.21), Tallinna Kalev II = 0.69 (league 1.88)
| Tallinna Kalev II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tartu Kalev | 0 | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.1% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 9.1% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 74.7% · Draw 9.2% · Away win 4.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1