Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Stadion Buniamshof
Expected Goals
0.88 (league 1.78)
1.42 (league 1.69)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.2% | 27.1% | 49.3% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.3%
1 - 1
12.5%
0 - 2
10.1%
Score & goals probability table
| SSV Jeddeloh | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Phönix Lübeck | 0 | 10.1% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
SSV Jeddeloh carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 29 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Phönix Lübeck -24.9, SSV Jeddeloh +50.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Phönix Lübeck
vs
SSV Jeddeloh
Elo gapSSV Jeddeloh +29
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3130.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3130.6
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Phönix Lübeck | SSV Jeddeloh |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1533.1 | 1597.5 |
| Form Elo | 1507.6 | 1614.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1532.9 | 1566.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1491.4 | 1756.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1552.9 | 1472.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -24.9 | +50.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Phönix Lübeck last-5 Elo change: -24.9; SSV Jeddeloh last-5 Elo change: +50.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Phönix Lübeck | SSV Jeddeloh |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 100% |
| Attack | 28% | 100% |
| Defense | 50% | 83% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 19 | 3.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Phönix Lübeck | SSV Jeddeloh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 50% | 27% | 38% | 64% | 60% | 62% |
| Draws | 14% | 40% | 28% | 14% | 27% | 21% |
| Loses | 36% | 33% | 34% | 21% | 13% | 17% |
Phönix LübeckWWLDWDWLWLLWDWWWWDLDDLDLLDWLL
SSV JeddelohWWWWWDWLDDWWWDWWLLWDDLLWWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Phönix Lübeck | SSV Jeddeloh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 18 | 21 | 39 | 35 | 36 | 71 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| GA total | 14 | 23 | 37 | 17 | 18 | 35 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Phönix Lübeck | SSV Jeddeloh | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 62% | 86% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 45% | 59% | 28% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 14% | 41% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 7% | 28% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 0% | 14% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Phönix Lübeck | SSV Jeddeloh | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Phönix Lübeck | SSV Jeddeloh |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Phönix Lübeck | SSV Jeddeloh |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 2-5 | 7-1 | 2-7 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 4-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Phönix Lübeck | SSV Jeddeloh |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 21% | 79% |
| Att | 21% | 79% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 37% | 63% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 82% | 18% |
| Total | 45.2% | 54.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Phönix Lübeck
vs
SSV Jeddeloh
Expected goals
0.88
Phönix Lübeck xG
League Avg: 1.78
Total
2.29
1.42
SSV Jeddeloh xG
League Avg: 1.69
1x2 probabilities
Home
23.2%
Draw
27.1%
Away
49.3%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
14.3%
Tip
1 - 1
12.5%
Tip
0 - 2
10.1%
More chances
1.5+
86%
Chance
2.5+
61%
Chance
3.5+
43%
Chance
BTTS
68%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Phönix Lübeck = 0.88 (league 1.78), SSV Jeddeloh = 1.42 (league 1.69)
| SSV Jeddeloh | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Phönix Lübeck | 0 | 10.1% | 14.3% | 10.1% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.2% · Draw 27.1% · Away win 49.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1