1. Liga — Latvia
Sat, Oct 25 2025 • 15:00 • Tepera stadions
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.74 (league 1.85) 4.28 (league 1.47)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
9.3% 9.9% 54.1%
best score tips
1 - 4
5.9%
1 - 3
5.5%
2 - 4
5.1%
Score & goals probability table
Riga Mariners
0 1 2 3 4 5
Smiltene 0 0.2% 1.0% 2.2% 3.2% 3.4% 2.9%
1 0.4% 1.8% 3.9% 5.5% 5.9% 5.1%
2 0.4% 1.6% 3.4% 4.8% 5.1% 4.4%
3 0.2% 0.9% 2.0% 2.8% 3.0% 2.6%
4 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSmilteneRiga Mariners
Played55
Form27%67%
Attack37%79%
Defense47%63%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.415 | 3
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

83%
FT probability

3.5+

59%
FT probability

BTTS

85%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Smiltene Riga Mariners
HATHAT
Played101323121123
Wins40%31%35%58%82%70%
Draws10%8%9%25%9%17%
Loses50%62%57%17%9%13%

Form: Smiltene: LWDLLWLWWWLLLLWLWLLDLLW • Riga Mariners: DWWDWLLWWWWWWDWWWWWLWDW

League goals

Metric Smiltene Riga Mariners
HATHAT
GF total231942343367
GF avg2.31.51.82.83.02.9
GA total212142131528
GA avg2.11.61.81.11.41.2

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSmilteneRiga Mariners
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%87%91%74%
1.552%61%74%35%
2.526%26%61%13%
3.513%9%35%0%
4.59%0%22%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSmilteneRiga Mariners
HATHAT
Clean sheets123516
Failed to score224112

Penalties

MetricSmilteneRiga Mariners
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total03

Streaks

MetricSmilteneRiga Mariners
Wins36
Draws11
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-00-36-01-5
Biggest losses0-43-12-33-0
Goals For5365
Goals Against4333

Model comparison

MetricSmilteneRiga Mariners
Form29%71%
Att32%68%
Def41%59%
Poisson Distribution29%71%
H2h0%100%
Goals25%75%
Total31.2%68.8%

Advice: Combo Winner : Riga Mariners and +1.5 goals

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home5.00 @ Betfair
Draw4.50 @ Bet365
Away1.52 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.50 @ Marathonbet
No2.55 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Smiltene = 1.74 (league 1.85), Riga Mariners = 4.28 (league 1.47)

Riga Mariners
0 1 2 3 4 5
Smiltene 0 0.2% 1.0% 2.2% 3.2% 3.4% 2.9%
1 0.4% 1.8% 3.9% 5.5% 5.9% 5.1%
2 0.4% 1.6% 3.4% 4.8% 5.1% 4.4%
3 0.2% 0.9% 2.0% 2.8% 3.0% 2.6%
4 0.1% 0.4% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1%
5 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 9.3% · Draw 9.9% · Away win 54.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1