Mon, Apr 20 2026 • 18:00 •
Illovszky Rudolf Stadion
Expected Goals
1.93 (league 1.43)
1.10 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 55.3% | 22.0% | 21.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.3%
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
9.4%
Score & goals probability table
| BVSC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vasas | 0 | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Vasas carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 177 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Vasas +51.2, BVSC +1.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Vasas
vs
BVSC
Elo gapVasas +177
Home / draw / away60% / 18% / 22%
Expected home share73%
Combined Elo3146.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3146.7
Elo home share
73%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Vasas | BVSC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1644.1 | 1502.6 |
| Form Elo | 1665.3 | 1507.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1572.7 | 1489.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1704.2 | 1503.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1644.4 | 1554.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +51.2 | +1.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Vasas last-5 Elo change: +51.2; BVSC last-5 Elo change: +1.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Vasas | BVSC |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 100% | 47% |
| Attack | 100% | 73% |
| Defense | 91% | 55% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 19 | 3.8 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 1 | 0.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
76%
FT probability
2.5+
53%
FT probability
3.5+
38%
FT probability
BTTS
62%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Vasas | BVSC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 25 |
| Wins | 75% | 62% | 68% | 31% | 42% | 36% |
| Draws | 8% | 23% | 16% | 31% | 0% | 16% |
| Loses | 17% | 15% | 16% | 38% | 58% | 48% |
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BVSCWLLLDLLLWLDWWLLWDWLWWWLLD
League goals
| Metric | Vasas | BVSC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 24 | 51 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 13 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Vasas | BVSC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 36% | 60% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 60% | 20% | 32% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 12% | 16% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Vasas | BVSC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 9 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Vasas | BVSC |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 6 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 6 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Vasas | BVSC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 1-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Vasas | BVSC |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 68% | 32% |
| Att | 70% | 30% |
| Def | 83% | 17% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 70% | 30% |
| Total | 71.2% | 28.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.29 @ Unibet
Draw5.97 @ Pinnacle
Away13.50 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.40 @ Betfair
No1.60 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.80 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.11 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Vasas
vs
BVSC
Expected goals
1.93
Vasas xG
League Avg: 1.43
Total
3.03
1.10
BVSC xG
League Avg: 1.20
1x2 probabilities
Home
55.3%
Draw
22.0%
Away
21.2%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
10.3%
Tip
2 - 1
9.9%
Tip
1 - 0
9.4%
More chances
1.5+
76%
Chance
2.5+
53%
Chance
3.5+
38%
Chance
BTTS
62%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Vasas = 1.93 (league 1.43), BVSC = 1.10 (league 1.20)
| BVSC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vasas | 0 | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 55.3% · Draw 22.0% · Away win 21.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1