Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:00 •
Turnerwald-Stadion
Expected Goals
0.77 (league 1.72)
1.67 (league 1.51)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.9% | 24.1% | 58.2% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.6%
0 - 2
12.2%
1 - 1
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Gurten | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Treibach | 0 | 8.7% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Gurten carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 166 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Treibach -10.9, Gurten +21.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Treibach
vs
Gurten
Elo gapGurten +166
Home / draw / away23% / 18% / 59%
Expected home share28%
Combined Elo3037.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3037.6
Elo home share
28%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Treibach | Gurten |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1418.2 | 1619.4 |
| Form Elo | 1402.1 | 1634.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1470.2 | 1555.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1408.5 | 1620.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1361.2 | 1659 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -10.9 | +21.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Treibach last-5 Elo change: -10.9; Gurten last-5 Elo change: +21.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Treibach | Gurten |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 73% |
| Attack | 0% | 100% |
| Defense | 0% | 83% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Treibach | Gurten | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| Wins | 27% | 8% | 17% | 55% | 58% | 57% |
| Draws | 27% | 17% | 22% | 27% | 17% | 22% |
| Loses | 45% | 75% | 61% | 18% | 25% | 22% |
TreibachLLLWLWLWLLDLDLLLWLDDLDL
GurtenDWDLWWLWWWLWLWDLWWWWWDD
League goals
| Metric | Treibach | Gurten | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 10 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 45 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 15 | 37 | 52 | 11 | 13 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Treibach | Gurten | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 48% | 87% | 91% | 48% |
| 1.5 | 30% | 52% | 52% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 39% | 26% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 26% | 17% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 13% | 9% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Treibach | Gurten | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Treibach | Gurten |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Treibach | Gurten |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 6-0 | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Treibach | Gurten |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 21% | 79% |
| Att | 0% | 100% |
| Def | 11% | 89% |
| Poisson Distribution | 31% | 69% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 25% | 75% |
| Total | 23.4% | 76.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Treibach
vs
Gurten
Expected goals
0.77
Treibach xG
League Avg: 1.72
Total
2.44
1.67
Gurten xG
League Avg: 1.51
1x2 probabilities
Home
16.9%
Draw
24.1%
Away
58.2%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
14.6%
Tip
0 - 2
12.2%
Tip
1 - 1
11.2%
More chances
1.5+
84%
Chance
2.5+
59%
Chance
3.5+
42%
Chance
BTTS
65%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Treibach = 0.77 (league 1.72), Gurten = 1.67 (league 1.51)
| Gurten | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Treibach | 0 | 8.7% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.9% · Draw 24.1% · Away win 58.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1