Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:00 •
Sportforum Hohenschönhausen
Expected Goals
1.10 (league 1.60)
2.32 (league 1.30)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 16.5% | 18.7% | 61.5% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 2
8.8%
1 - 1
8.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Lokomotive Leipzig | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| BFC Dynamo | 0 | 3.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
Lokomotive Leipzig carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 89 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: BFC Dynamo +25.5, Lokomotive Leipzig -16.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
BFC Dynamo
vs
Lokomotive Leipzig
Elo gapLokomotive Leipzig +89
Home / draw / away30% / 20% / 50%
Expected home share37%
Combined Elo3154.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3154.4
Elo home share
37%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1515 | 1639.4 |
| Form Elo | 1526.1 | 1628.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1496.1 | 1568.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1595.5 | 1685.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1458.2 | 1645.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.5 | -16.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. BFC Dynamo last-5 Elo change: +25.5; Lokomotive Leipzig last-5 Elo change: -16.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 47% |
| Attack | 86% | 29% |
| Defense | 50% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 40% | 20% | 30% | 73% | 67% | 70% |
| Draws | 20% | 40% | 30% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Loses | 40% | 40% | 40% | 20% | 27% | 23% |
BFC DynamoLLWDLLDWLDWLWLLDDLLWWLWDLDDWWD
Lokomotive LeipzigDWWWWWWWWLWWWWLWWLWLWWWLWWLWLD
League goals
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 17 | 41 | 27 | 30 | 57 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 22 | 23 | 45 | 8 | 16 | 24 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 80% | 77% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 43% | 50% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 10% | 20% | 33% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 7% | 17% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 8 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 2-7 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | BFC Dynamo | Lokomotive Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 33% | 67% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 44.7% | 55.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
BFC Dynamo
vs
Lokomotive Leipzig
Expected goals
1.10
BFC Dynamo xG
League Avg: 1.60
Total
3.41
2.32
Lokomotive Leipzig xG
League Avg: 1.30
1x2 probabilities
Home
16.5%
Draw
18.7%
Away
61.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 2
9.7%
Tip
0 - 2
8.8%
Tip
1 - 1
8.4%
More chances
1.5+
84%
Chance
2.5+
59%
Chance
3.5+
42%
Chance
BTTS
71%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): BFC Dynamo = 1.10 (league 1.60), Lokomotive Leipzig = 2.32 (league 1.30)
| Lokomotive Leipzig | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| BFC Dynamo | 0 | 3.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 3.6% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% | |
| 2 | 2.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.5% · Draw 18.7% · Away win 61.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1