Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:30 •
Sportanlage Kiesbarg
Expected Goals
1.66 (league 2.22)
1.99 (league 1.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.9% | 21.5% | 44.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Niendorfer TSV | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Süderelbe | 0 | 2.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Süderelbe carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 20 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Süderelbe -7.6, Niendorfer TSV +19.8.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Süderelbe
vs
Niendorfer TSV
Elo gapSüderelbe +20
Home / draw / away38% / 28% / 34%
Expected home share53%
Combined Elo3052
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3052
Elo home share
53%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Süderelbe | Niendorfer TSV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1518.3 | 1533.7 |
| Form Elo | 1510.5 | 1539.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1522.7 | 1541.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1636.9 | 1634 |
| Defense Elo | 1464.2 | 1553.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -7.6 | +19.8 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Süderelbe last-5 Elo change: -7.6; Niendorfer TSV last-5 Elo change: +19.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Süderelbe | Niendorfer TSV |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 33% | 53% |
| Attack | 0% | 0% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
78%
FT probability
3.5+
56%
FT probability
BTTS
77%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Süderelbe | Niendorfer TSV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| Wins | 46% | 36% | 41% | 29% | 42% | 35% |
| Draws | 31% | 14% | 22% | 36% | 17% | 27% |
| Loses | 23% | 50% | 37% | 36% | 42% | 38% |
SüderelbeLWWDLWWLLWWLWLDWWLDLDWLLWDD
Niendorfer TSVWWDLLLWLDWLDLLWWDDLLWDLWWD
League goals
| Metric | Süderelbe | Niendorfer TSV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 26 | 56 | 23 | 31 | 54 |
| GF avg | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 19 | 30 | 49 | 22 | 19 | 41 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Süderelbe | Niendorfer TSV | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 70% | 81% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 59% | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 37% | 35% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 11% | 19% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 15% | 4% | 8% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Süderelbe | Niendorfer TSV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Süderelbe | Niendorfer TSV |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Süderelbe | Niendorfer TSV |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-6 | 5-1 | 0-7 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-0 | 1-6 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Süderelbe | Niendorfer TSV |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 62% |
| Att | 37% | 63% |
| Def | 23% | 77% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 42% | 58% |
| Total | 37.5% | 62.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Süderelbe
vs
Niendorfer TSV
Expected goals
1.66
Süderelbe xG
League Avg: 2.22
Total
3.64
1.99
Niendorfer TSV xG
League Avg: 1.96
1x2 probabilities
Home
31.9%
Draw
21.5%
Away
44.3%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
8.6%
Tip
1 - 2
8.6%
Tip
2 - 1
7.1%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
78%
Chance
3.5+
56%
Chance
BTTS
77%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Süderelbe = 1.66 (league 2.22), Niendorfer TSV = 1.99 (league 1.96)
| Niendorfer TSV | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Süderelbe | 0 | 2.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.9% · Draw 21.5% · Away win 44.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1