Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 17:00 •
Manfred-Zollner-Stadion
Expected Goals
1.28 (league 1.55)
1.01 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 42.5% | 28.1% | 29.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
13.1%
1 - 0
13.0%
0 - 1
10.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Buchbach | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vilzing | 0 | 10.2% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.0% | 13.1% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Vilzing carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 59 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Vilzing -34.8, Buchbach +3.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Vilzing
vs
Buchbach
Elo gapVilzing +59
Home / draw / away44% / 23% / 33%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo3104.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3104.7
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Vilzing | Buchbach |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1564.3 | 1540.4 |
| Form Elo | 1551.3 | 1534.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1549 | 1533.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1659.7 | 1640.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1556.3 | 1411.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -34.8 | +3.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Vilzing last-5 Elo change: -34.8; Buchbach last-5 Elo change: +3.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Vilzing | Buchbach |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 60% |
| Attack | 12% | 47% |
| Defense | 65% | 41% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
80%
FT probability
2.5+
56%
FT probability
3.5+
40%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Vilzing | Buchbach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 43% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 38% |
| Draws | 14% | 20% | 17% | 27% | 21% | 24% |
| Loses | 43% | 47% | 45% | 33% | 43% | 38% |
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BuchbachWLDWWLWDDLLLLWLWWWLLDDDDWWWLL
League goals
| Metric | Vilzing | Buchbach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 20 | 36 | 26 | 20 | 46 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 14 | 25 | 39 | 26 | 25 | 51 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Vilzing | Buchbach | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 72% | 83% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 34% | 34% | 41% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 17% | 31% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 7% | 3% | 21% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Vilzing | Buchbach | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Vilzing | Buchbach |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Vilzing | Buchbach |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-4 | 3-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-4 | 5-0 | 1-4 | 6-3 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Vilzing | Buchbach |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31% | 69% |
| Att | 20% | 80% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 56% | 44% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 72% | 28% |
| Total | 55.8% | 44.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Vilzing
vs
Buchbach
Expected goals
1.28
Vilzing xG
League Avg: 1.55
Total
2.29
1.01
Buchbach xG
League Avg: 1.39
1x2 probabilities
Home
42.5%
Draw
28.1%
Away
29.1%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
13.1%
Tip
1 - 0
13.0%
Tip
0 - 1
10.2%
More chances
1.5+
80%
Chance
2.5+
56%
Chance
3.5+
40%
Chance
BTTS
69%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Vilzing = 1.28 (league 1.55), Buchbach = 1.01 (league 1.39)
| Buchbach | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Vilzing | 0 | 10.2% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.0% | 13.1% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.3% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 42.5% · Draw 28.1% · Away win 29.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1