Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 10:00 •
Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera
Expected Goals
2.40 (league 1.67)
2.83 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.6% | 17.5% | 41.9% |
best score tips
2 - 2
6.2%
2 - 3
5.8%
1 - 2
5.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Lech Poznań II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pogoń Szczecin II | 0 | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 1.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Lech Poznań II carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 69 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Pogoń Szczecin II -22.8, Lech Poznań II +17.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Pogoń Szczecin II
vs
Lech Poznań II
Elo gapLech Poznań II +69
Home / draw / away31% / 22% / 47%
Expected home share40%
Combined Elo3027.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3027.7
Elo home share
40%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Pogoń Szczecin II | Lech Poznań II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1461.7 | 1566 |
| Form Elo | 1453.1 | 1565.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1485.9 | 1530.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1631.6 | 1675.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1407.7 | 1496 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -22.8 | +17.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Pogoń Szczecin II last-5 Elo change: -22.8; Lech Poznań II last-5 Elo change: +17.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Pogoń Szczecin II | Lech Poznań II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 53% |
| Attack | 50% | 90% |
| Defense | 40% | 30% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
77%
FT probability
3.5+
55%
FT probability
BTTS
83%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Pogoń Szczecin II | Lech Poznań II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 31% | 21% | 26% | 50% | 46% | 48% |
| Draws | 15% | 7% | 11% | 21% | 15% | 19% |
| Loses | 54% | 71% | 63% | 29% | 38% | 33% |
Pogoń Szczecin IIWLLWDLLLWLLLLWDLDWWLLLWLLLL
Lech Poznań IIWLLWWWDLWWWWWWLDLLDLLWDDWLW
League goals
| Metric | Pogoń Szczecin II | Lech Poznań II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 33 | 12 | 45 | 28 | 27 | 55 |
| GF avg | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 25 | 32 | 57 | 17 | 21 | 38 |
| GA avg | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Pogoń Szczecin II | Lech Poznań II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 74% | 89% | 85% | 85% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 67% | 59% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 37% | 37% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 11% | 15% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Pogoń Szczecin II | Lech Poznań II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Pogoń Szczecin II | Lech Poznań II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Pogoń Szczecin II | Lech Poznań II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-2 | 6-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 3-4 | 6-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Pogoń Szczecin II | Lech Poznań II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 27% | 73% |
| Att | 36% | 64% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 48% | 52% |
| H2h | 13% | 88% |
| Goals | 33% | 67% |
| Total | 35.2% | 65.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Pogoń Szczecin II
vs
Lech Poznań II
Expected goals
2.40
Pogoń Szczecin II xG
League Avg: 1.67
Total
5.22
2.83
Lech Poznań II xG
League Avg: 1.41
1x2 probabilities
Home
30.6%
Draw
17.5%
Away
41.9%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 2
6.2%
Tip
2 - 3
5.8%
Tip
1 - 2
5.2%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
77%
Chance
3.5+
55%
Chance
BTTS
83%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Pogoń Szczecin II = 2.40 (league 1.67), Lech Poznań II = 2.83 (league 1.41)
| Lech Poznań II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Pogoń Szczecin II | 0 | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 1.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | |
| 2 | 1.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.3% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 30.6% · Draw 17.5% · Away win 41.9%
vtt 1 , vtd1