Campionato
— San-Marino
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 13:00 •
Stadio di Domagnano
Expected Goals
1.65 (league 1.40)
1.55 (league 1.35)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 39.9% | 23.4% | 35.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.4%
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
8.1%
Score & goals probability table
| Folgore | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Domagnano | 0 | 4.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Domagnano carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 47 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Domagnano -1.5, Folgore +4.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Domagnano
vs
Folgore
Elo gapDomagnano +47
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3097.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3097.4
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Domagnano | Folgore |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1554.5 | 1542.9 |
| Form Elo | 1553 | 1554 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.7 | 1523.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1617.5 | 1592.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1562.3 | 1558.6 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -1.5 | +4.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Domagnano last-5 Elo change: -1.5; Folgore last-5 Elo change: +4.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Domagnano | Folgore |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 47% |
| Attack | 42% | 42% |
| Defense | 74% | 74% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
87%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
44%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Domagnano | Folgore | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 50% | 47% | 48% | 53% | 50% | 52% |
| Draws | 21% | 27% | 24% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
| Loses | 29% | 27% | 28% | 13% | 21% | 17% |
DomagnanoWWDDLWWWDWWWDDDLLLLLWWWLWLWDW
FolgoreWLWWWLWWDDLLDWWLWWWWDWWDDDDDW
League goals
| Metric | Domagnano | Folgore | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 26 | 56 | 33 | 27 | 60 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| GA total | 16 | 13 | 29 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Domagnano | Folgore | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 62% | 93% | 62% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 28% | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 10% | 34% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 0% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Domagnano | Folgore | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Domagnano | Folgore |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Domagnano | Folgore |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-6 | 6-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 2-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Domagnano | Folgore |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 59% | 41% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 51% | 49% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 64% | 36% |
| Total | 54.0% | 46.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Domagnano
vs
Folgore
Expected goals
1.65
Domagnano xG
League Avg: 1.40
Total
3.20
1.55
Folgore xG
League Avg: 1.35
1x2 probabilities
Home
39.9%
Draw
23.4%
Away
35.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
10.4%
Tip
2 - 1
8.6%
Tip
1 - 2
8.1%
More chances
1.5+
87%
Chance
2.5+
61%
Chance
3.5+
44%
Chance
BTTS
73%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Domagnano = 1.65 (league 1.40), Folgore = 1.55 (league 1.35)
| Folgore | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Domagnano | 0 | 4.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.9% · Draw 23.4% · Away win 35.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1