Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 16:30 •
Národné tréningové centrum SFZ
Expected Goals
3.02 (league 1.92)
0.64 (league 1.09)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 75.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% |
best score tips
3 - 0
11.8%
2 - 0
11.7%
4 - 0
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Komárno II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| MŠK Senec | 0 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.7% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.9% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
MŠK Senec carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 61 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: MŠK Senec -6.3, Komárno II 0.0.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
MŠK Senec
vs
Komárno II
Elo gapMŠK Senec +61
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3026.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3026.4
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | MŠK Senec | Komárno II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1526.4 | 1500 |
| Form Elo | 1528.5 | 1500 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1506.3 | 1500 |
| Attack Elo | 1574.6 | 1500 |
| Defense Elo | 1515.1 | 1500 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -6.3 | 0.0 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. MŠK Senec last-5 Elo change: -6.3; Komárno II last-5 Elo change: 0.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | MŠK Senec | Komárno II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 27% |
| Attack | 58% | 83% |
| Defense | 50% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 14 | 2.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
90%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | MŠK Senec | Komárno II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 11 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Wins | 73% | 18% | 45% | 42% | 0% | 22% |
| Draws | 9% | 27% | 18% | 17% | 0% | 9% |
| Loses | 18% | 55% | 36% | 42% | 100% | 70% |
MŠK SenecLLLWWWLWDWDLDWWWLWDLLW
Komárno IILLLLLLWLDLWLWLLWLLLDLLW
League goals
| Metric | MŠK Senec | Komárno II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 12 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 25 |
| GF avg | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 11 | 15 | 26 | 19 | 32 | 51 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | MŠK Senec | Komárno II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 68% | 65% | 87% |
| 1.5 | 45% | 41% | 26% | 70% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 5% | 17% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 5% | 5% | 0% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | MŠK Senec | Komárno II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | MŠK Senec | Komárno II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | MŠK Senec | Komárno II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-3 | 3-1 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 2-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | MŠK Senec | Komárno II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 41% | 59% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 84% | 16% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 61.8% | 38.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
MŠK Senec
vs
Komárno II
Expected goals
3.02
MŠK Senec xG
League Avg: 1.92
Total
3.66
0.64
Komárno II xG
League Avg: 1.09
1x2 probabilities
Home
75.8%
Draw
10.6%
Away
5.1%
Best score tips
Tip
3 - 0
11.8%
Tip
2 - 0
11.7%
Tip
4 - 0
8.9%
More chances
1.5+
90%
Chance
2.5+
63%
Chance
3.5+
45%
Chance
BTTS
74%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): MŠK Senec = 3.02 (league 1.92), Komárno II = 0.64 (league 1.09)
| Komárno II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| MŠK Senec | 0 | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 7.8% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.7% | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 8.9% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 75.8% · Draw 10.6% · Away win 5.1%
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