National 1
— France
Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 17:30 •
Stade Michel d'Ornano
Expected Goals
0.96 (league 1.32)
0.44 (league 1.10)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | 36.3% | 16.7% |
best score tips
0 - 0
24.6%
1 - 0
23.6%
2 - 0
11.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Villefranche | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Caen | 0 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Caen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 44 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Caen +35.1, Villefranche +20.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Caen
vs
Villefranche
Elo gapCaen +44
Home / draw / away42% / 25% / 33%
Expected home share56%
Combined Elo2945.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2945.1
Elo home share
56%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Caen | Villefranche |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1477 | 1468.1 |
| Form Elo | 1495.1 | 1486.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1487 | 1462 |
| Attack Elo | 1444 | 1417.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1524.9 | 1519.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +35.1 | +20.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Caen last-5 Elo change: +35.1; Villefranche last-5 Elo change: +20.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Caen | Villefranche |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 53% |
| Attack | 80% | 70% |
| Defense | 70% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
60%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
60%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Caen | Villefranche | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 29 |
| Wins | 29% | 20% | 24% | 50% | 15% | 34% |
| Draws | 57% | 47% | 52% | 13% | 31% | 21% |
| Loses | 14% | 33% | 24% | 38% | 54% | 45% |
CaenWDLWDDDLWLDDDWDDDLWDLLDLDDDWW
VillefrancheDLWLDWLWLLLLWLDLWWWDLLLWLDWDW
League goals
| Metric | Caen | Villefranche | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 13 | 22 | 35 | 23 | 9 | 32 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 10 | 21 | 31 | 21 | 18 | 39 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Caen | Villefranche | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 66% | 69% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 28% | 31% | 34% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 10% | 7% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Caen | Villefranche | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Caen | Villefranche |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Caen | Villefranche |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Caen | Villefranche |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 53% | 47% |
| Att | 53% | 47% |
| Def | 63% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 70% | 30% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 56.5% | 43.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.79 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.60 @ Betfair
Away4.33 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.86 @ 1xBet
No1.86 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.97 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.82 @ Pinnacle
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Caen
vs
Villefranche
Expected goals
0.96
Caen xG
League Avg: 1.32
Total
1.40
0.44
Villefranche xG
League Avg: 1.10
1x2 probabilities
Home
47.0%
Draw
36.3%
Away
16.7%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
24.6%
Tip
1 - 0
23.6%
Tip
2 - 0
11.3%
More chances
1.5+
60%
Chance
2.5+
42%
Chance
3.5+
30%
Chance
BTTS
60%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Caen = 0.96 (league 1.32), Villefranche = 0.44 (league 1.10)
| Villefranche | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Caen | 0 | 24.6% | 10.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.3% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.0% · Draw 36.3% · Away win 16.7%
vtt 1 , vtd1