Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Stadion Herti Allmend
Expected Goals
1.55 (league 1.63)
1.48 (league 1.49)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 38.7% | 24.2% | 36.2% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.1%
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 2
8.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Delémont | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Zug | 0 | 4.8% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 7.5% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Zug carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 146 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Zug +25.7, Delémont -12.2.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Zug
vs
Delémont
Elo gapZug +146
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share70%
Combined Elo2944.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2944.4
Elo home share
70%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Zug | Delémont |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1527.5 | 1416.9 |
| Form Elo | 1541 | 1400.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1504 | 1460.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1489.7 | 1515.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1487.5 | 1373.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.7 | -12.2 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Zug last-5 Elo change: +25.7; Delémont last-5 Elo change: -12.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Zug | Delémont |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 27% |
| Attack | 46% | 62% |
| Defense | 62% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Zug | Delémont | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 33% | 33% | 33% | 25% | 17% | 21% |
| Draws | 33% | 42% | 38% | 25% | 42% | 33% |
| Loses | 33% | 25% | 29% | 50% | 42% | 46% |
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DelémontLWWDDDWWDDDLLLLLLDLLLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Zug | Delémont | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 17 | 31 | 23 | 16 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| GA total | 20 | 16 | 36 | 23 | 25 | 48 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Zug | Delémont | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 71% | 92% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 42% | 50% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 25% | 13% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 8% | 4% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 4% | 13% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Zug | Delémont | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Zug | Delémont |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Zug | Delémont |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 6 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-2 | 0-4 | 5-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 4-0 | 2-5 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Zug | Delémont |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 71% | 29% |
| Att | 43% | 57% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 54.5% | 45.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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