Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Sportplatz Margelacker
Expected Goals
2.70 (league 1.63)
1.18 (league 1.49)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.8% | 16.1% | 14.2% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.9%
3 - 1
8.0%
2 - 0
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Buochs | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Muttenz | 0 | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 7.5% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.8% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Muttenz carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 46 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Muttenz +12.7, Buochs -18.9.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Muttenz
vs
Buochs
Elo gapMuttenz +46
Home / draw / away43% / 25% / 32%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3012.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3012.7
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Muttenz | Buochs |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1511.8 | 1500.9 |
| Form Elo | 1513.6 | 1500.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1518.9 | 1497.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1618.2 | 1549 |
| Defense Elo | 1461.6 | 1483.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.7 | -18.9 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Muttenz last-5 Elo change: +12.7; Buochs last-5 Elo change: -18.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Muttenz | Buochs |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 27% |
| Attack | 77% | 23% |
| Defense | 54% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
67%
FT probability
3.5+
48%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Muttenz | Buochs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 42% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 17% | 33% |
| Draws | 33% | 33% | 33% | 8% | 17% | 13% |
| Loses | 25% | 25% | 25% | 42% | 67% | 54% |
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BuochsLLLWLWDLLLWLWLLWDWWLLLDW
League goals
| Metric | Muttenz | Buochs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 24 | 49 | 16 | 13 | 29 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 19 | 17 | 36 | 15 | 25 | 40 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Muttenz | Buochs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 83% | 71% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 58% | 46% | 38% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 17% | 13% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 4% | 0% | 8% |
| 4.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Muttenz | Buochs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Muttenz | Buochs |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Muttenz | Buochs |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-6 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 3-0 | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Muttenz | Buochs |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 77% | 23% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 69% | 31% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 70% | 30% |
| Total | 68.2% | 31.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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