Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 10:00 •
Estadio Municipal Manuel Polinario
Expected Goals
1.66 (league 1.25)
0.53 (league 0.91)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 64.5% | 23.4% | 11.3% |
best score tips
1 - 0
18.6%
2 - 0
15.5%
0 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Málaga II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Puente Genil | 0 | 11.2% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.5% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Puente Genil carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 131 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Puente Genil -19.3, Málaga II -20.1.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Puente Genil
vs
Málaga II
Elo gapPuente Genil +131
Home / draw / away56% / 18% / 26%
Expected home share68%
Combined Elo2946.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2946.3
Elo home share
68%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Puente Genil | Málaga II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1521.2 | 1425.1 |
| Form Elo | 1515.1 | 1400.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527.9 | 1470.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1438.7 | 1489.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1613.1 | 1429.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -19.3 | -20.1 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Puente Genil last-5 Elo change: -19.3; Málaga II last-5 Elo change: -20.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Puente Genil | Málaga II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 40% |
| Attack | 25% | 50% |
| Defense | 58% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 13 | 2.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
47%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
69%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Puente Genil | Málaga II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Wins | 38% | 19% | 28% | 31% | 0% | 16% |
| Draws | 56% | 6% | 31% | 13% | 19% | 16% |
| Loses | 6% | 75% | 41% | 56% | 81% | 69% |
Puente GenilWWDDDLDWLLDLDWWDLWLLWLDLWLDLLWDL
Málaga IILLDDLLLLLWDLLLLLLLWLWDDLLLLLLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Puente Genil | Málaga II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 12 | 26 | 15 | 13 | 28 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 9 | 26 | 35 | 25 | 36 | 61 |
| GA avg | 0.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Puente Genil | Málaga II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 66% | 72% | 66% | 94% |
| 1.5 | 16% | 22% | 19% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 13% | 3% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Puente Genil | Málaga II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Puente Genil | Málaga II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Puente Genil | Málaga II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-1 | 1-2 | 3-2 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 4-0 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Puente Genil | Málaga II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 72% | 28% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 53.8% | 46.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Puente Genil
vs
Málaga II
Expected goals
1.66
Puente Genil xG
League Avg: 1.25
Total
2.19
0.53
Málaga II xG
League Avg: 0.91
1x2 probabilities
Home
64.5%
Draw
23.4%
Away
11.3%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
18.6%
Tip
2 - 0
15.5%
Tip
0 - 0
11.2%
More chances
1.5+
66%
Chance
2.5+
47%
Chance
3.5+
33%
Chance
BTTS
69%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Puente Genil = 1.66 (league 1.25), Málaga II = 0.53 (league 0.91)
| Málaga II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Puente Genil | 0 | 11.2% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.5% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.6% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.5% · Draw 23.4% · Away win 11.3%
vtt 1 , vtd1