Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 14:00 •
Ivajlo Stadion
Expected Goals
1.85 (league 1.38)
1.72 (league 0.96)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.4% | 22.0% | 35.6% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.0%
2 - 1
8.3%
1 - 2
7.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Pirin Blagoevgrad | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 0 | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Etar Veliko Tarnovo carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 96 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Etar Veliko Tarnovo +12.7, Pirin Blagoevgrad +2.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
vs
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Elo gapEtar Veliko Tarnovo +96
Home / draw / away51% / 19% / 30%
Expected home share63%
Combined Elo2987
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2987
Elo home share
63%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1523.8 | 1463.2 |
| Form Elo | 1540.4 | 1456.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.5 | 1472.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1499.4 | 1457.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1529.8 | 1514.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +12.7 | +2.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Etar Veliko Tarnovo last-5 Elo change: +12.7; Pirin Blagoevgrad last-5 Elo change: +2.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 40% |
| Attack | 43% | 14% |
| Defense | 57% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
78%
FT probability
2.5+
55%
FT probability
3.5+
39%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Pirin Blagoevgrad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 14 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Wins | 38% | 29% | 33% | 29% | 31% | 30% |
| Draws | 46% | 29% | 37% | 50% | 23% | 37% |
| Loses | 15% | 43% | 30% | 21% | 46% | 33% |
Etar Veliko TarnovoDDLLDWDLDLWDDLWWLWDLWWLWDDW
Pirin BlagoevgradDWLWWLLWLWLDLDWDDDWDLLDWDLD
League goals
| Metric | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Pirin Blagoevgrad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 12 | 34 | 12 | 20 | 32 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 14 | 24 | 38 | 12 | 20 | 32 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Pirin Blagoevgrad | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 59% | 67% | 70% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 41% | 30% | 37% |
| 2.5 | 26% | 22% | 11% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 11% | 4% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Pirin Blagoevgrad | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 2-4 | 2-1 | 2-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-0 | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | Pirin Blagoevgrad |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 31% | 69% |
| Poisson Distribution | 55% | 45% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 50.0% | 50.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
vs
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Expected goals
1.85
Etar Veliko Tarnovo xG
League Avg: 1.38
Total
3.57
1.72
Pirin Blagoevgrad xG
League Avg: 0.96
1x2 probabilities
Home
40.4%
Draw
22.0%
Away
35.6%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
9.0%
Tip
2 - 1
8.3%
Tip
1 - 2
7.7%
More chances
1.5+
78%
Chance
2.5+
55%
Chance
3.5+
39%
Chance
BTTS
65%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Etar Veliko Tarnovo = 1.85 (league 1.38), Pirin Blagoevgrad = 1.72 (league 0.96)
| Pirin Blagoevgrad | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 0 | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 40.4% · Draw 22.0% · Away win 35.6%
vtt 1 , vtd1