Fri, Apr 24 2026 • 13:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.88 (league 1.00)
1.24 (league 0.89)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4% | 29.2% | 44.2% |
best score tips
0 - 1
14.9%
1 - 1
13.1%
0 - 0
12.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Mara Sugar | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tusker | 0 | 12.0% | 14.9% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Tusker carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 80 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tusker +19.8, Mara Sugar +3.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Tusker
vs
Mara Sugar
Elo gapTusker +80
Home / draw / away48% / 21% / 31%
Expected home share61%
Combined Elo3020.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3020.1
Elo home share
61%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Tusker | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1532.3 | 1487.8 |
| Form Elo | 1536.6 | 1492.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.6 | 1494.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1413.2 | 1420.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1558.2 | 1560.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +19.8 | +3.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Tusker last-5 Elo change: +19.8; Mara Sugar last-5 Elo change: +3.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tusker | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Attack | 18% | 18% |
| Defense | 88% | 88% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
54%
FT probability
2.5+
38%
FT probability
3.5+
27%
FT probability
BTTS
59%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tusker | Mara Sugar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 36% | 50% | 43% | 36% | 21% | 29% |
| Draws | 29% | 7% | 18% | 29% | 64% | 46% |
| Loses | 36% | 43% | 39% | 36% | 14% | 25% |
TuskerLLDDWWDWLLWWWLWLLWDLLWWWLLWD
Mara SugarDLWDDDWDLLWWDLDDLLDWDWDDLDWW
League goals
| Metric | Tusker | Mara Sugar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 11 | 13 | 24 | 11 | 15 | 26 |
| GF avg | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 14 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 16 | 25 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tusker | Mara Sugar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 68% | 61% | 57% | 61% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 21% | 29% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 7% | 7% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tusker | Mara Sugar | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 5 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tusker | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tusker | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tusker | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 45% | 55% |
| H2h | 91% | 9% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 58.3% | 41.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Tusker
vs
Mara Sugar
Expected goals
0.88
Tusker xG
League Avg: 1.00
Total
2.12
1.24
Mara Sugar xG
League Avg: 0.89
1x2 probabilities
Home
26.4%
Draw
29.2%
Away
44.2%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
14.9%
Tip
1 - 1
13.1%
Tip
0 - 0
12.0%
More chances
1.5+
54%
Chance
2.5+
38%
Chance
3.5+
27%
Chance
BTTS
59%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Tusker = 0.88 (league 1.00), Mara Sugar = 1.24 (league 0.89)
| Mara Sugar | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tusker | 0 | 12.0% | 14.9% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 13.1% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away win 44.2%
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