Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.84 (league 1.00)
1.35 (league 0.89)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 23.4% | 28.0% | 48.4% |
best score tips
0 - 1
15.1%
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 0
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Nairobi United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mathare United | 0 | 11.2% | 15.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Mathare United +1.6, Nairobi United +23.8.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Mathare United
vs
Nairobi United
Elo gapNairobi United +5
Home / draw / away35% / 29% / 36%
Expected home share49%
Combined Elo3037.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3037.3
Elo home share
49%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Mathare United | Nairobi United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1498.8 | 1538.5 |
| Form Elo | 1501.2 | 1545 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1513.8 | 1536 |
| Attack Elo | 1431.7 | 1551.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1561.1 | 1564.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.6 | +23.8 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Mathare United last-5 Elo change: +1.6; Nairobi United last-5 Elo change: +23.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mathare United | Nairobi United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 60% |
| Attack | 47% | 59% |
| Defense | 71% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
60%
FT probability
2.5+
42%
FT probability
3.5+
30%
FT probability
BTTS
61%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mathare United | Nairobi United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 43% | 21% | 32% | 29% | 50% | 39% |
| Draws | 7% | 43% | 25% | 36% | 29% | 32% |
| Loses | 50% | 36% | 43% | 36% | 21% | 29% |
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Nairobi UnitedWLWLWWLLDWDWLDWDLWDDWLLDDWDW
League goals
| Metric | Mathare United | Nairobi United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 17 | 8 | 25 | 21 | 17 | 38 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 14 | 13 | 27 | 19 | 10 | 29 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mathare United | Nairobi United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 61% | 64% | 75% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 14% | 29% | 32% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 4% | 21% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 0% | 7% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mathare United | Nairobi United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mathare United | Nairobi United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mathare United | Nairobi United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 2-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 0-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mathare United | Nairobi United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 47% | 53% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 51.4% | 48.6% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Mathare United
vs
Nairobi United
Expected goals
0.84
Mathare United xG
League Avg: 1.00
Total
2.19
1.35
Nairobi United xG
League Avg: 0.89
1x2 probabilities
Home
23.4%
Draw
28.0%
Away
48.4%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 1
15.1%
Tip
1 - 1
12.7%
Tip
0 - 0
11.2%
More chances
1.5+
60%
Chance
2.5+
42%
Chance
3.5+
30%
Chance
BTTS
61%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Mathare United = 0.84 (league 1.00), Nairobi United = 1.35 (league 0.89)
| Nairobi United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mathare United | 0 | 11.2% | 15.1% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.4% · Draw 28.0% · Away win 48.4%
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