Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 01:00 •
Estadio El Encanto
Expected Goals
0.83 (league 1.54)
2.23 (league 1.13)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 12.5% | 18.3% | 66.5% |
best score tips
0 - 2
11.6%
0 - 1
10.4%
1 - 2
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Toluca | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mazatlán | 0 | 4.7% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 3.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| 2 | 1.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Mazatlán | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 20% |
| Attack | 22% | 22% |
| Defense | 50% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
74%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Mazatlán | Toluca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 16 | 16 | 32 | 19 | 19 | 38 |
| Wins | 25% | 6% | 16% | 63% | 47% | 55% |
| Draws | 50% | 19% | 34% | 32% | 26% | 29% |
| Loses | 25% | 75% | 50% | 5% | 26% | 16% |
Form: Mazatlán: DWLDLDLLDDLWLDDLDLLLLLWDWLWLDLLD • Toluca: WWLWDLWWWWWWWDDDWWDLWLWWWDDDWWWWWDDLDL
League goals
| Metric | Mazatlán | Toluca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 12 | 37 | 45 | 27 | 72 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| GA total | 29 | 29 | 58 | 20 | 15 | 35 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Mazatlán | Toluca | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 78% | 94% | 76% | 66% |
| 1.5 | 31% | 56% | 55% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 3% | 19% | 42% | 3% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 9% | 11% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Mazatlán | Toluca | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Mazatlán | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 7 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 7 |
Streaks
| Metric | Mazatlán | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 7 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 5 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-2 | 1-2 | 6-2 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 4-1 | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Mazatlán | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 40% | 60% |
| Poisson Distribution | 26% | 74% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 26% | 74% |
| Total | 33.7% | 66.3% |
Advice: Double chance : draw or Toluca
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home7.50 @ Bet365
Draw5.20 @ Dafabet
Away1.40 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.50 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.80 @ Betano
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.17 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Mazatlán
vs
Toluca
Expected goals
0.83
Mazatlán xG
League Avg: 1.54
Total
3.07
2.23
Toluca xG
League Avg: 1.13
1x2 probabilities
Home
12.5%
Draw
18.3%
Away
66.5%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 2
11.6%
Tip
0 - 1
10.4%
Tip
1 - 2
9.7%
More chances
1.5+
81%
Chance
2.5+
57%
Chance
3.5+
41%
Chance
BTTS
74%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 4
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Mazatlán = 0.83 (league 1.54), Toluca = 2.23 (league 1.13)
| Toluca | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Mazatlán | 0 | 4.7% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 3.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
| 2 | 1.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 12.5% · Draw 18.3% · Away win 66.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1