2. Division - Group 1 — Norway
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 • Idrettsparken Notodden
Not Started

Notodden

—

Bjarg

Expected Goals
0.52 (league 1.93) 2.91 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
4.1% 10.3% 78.1%
best score tips
0 - 2
13.7%
0 - 3
13.3%
0 - 4
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
Bjarg
0 1 2 3 4 5
Notodden 0 3.2% 9.4% 13.7% 13.3% 9.7% 5.6%
1 1.7% 4.9% 7.1% 6.9% 5.0% 2.9%
2 0.4% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away strong edge

Bjarg carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 203 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Notodden +0.3, Bjarg +10.6.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
Notodden Elo 1478.5 · +0.3
vs
Bjarg Elo 1716.8 · +10.6
Elo gapBjarg +203
Home / draw / away20% / 18% / 62%
Expected home share24%
Combined Elo3195.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 3195.3
Elo home share 24%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric Notodden Bjarg
Overall Elo1478.51716.8
Form Elo1469.11741.7
Home / Away Elo1478.11618.6
Attack Elo1481.31946.5
Defense Elo1442.41645.5
Last 5 Elo change+0.3+10.6

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Notodden last-5 Elo change: +0.3; Bjarg last-5 Elo change: +10.6.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricNotoddenBjarg
Played33
Form44%67%
Attack31%46%
Defense69%77%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 1.36 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)4 | 1.33 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

76%
FT probability

2.5+

53%
FT probability

3.5+

38%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1-4
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Notodden Bjarg
HATHAT
Played123213
Wins0%50%33%50%100%67%
Draws0%50%33%0%0%0%
Loses100%0%33%50%0%33%
NotoddenWLD
BjargWWL

League goals

Metric Notodden Bjarg
HATHAT
GF total134426
GF avg1.01.51.32.02.02.0
GA total224303
GA avg2.01.01.31.50.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineNotoddenBjarg
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%67%100%67%
1.533%67%67%33%
2.50%0%33%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricNotoddenBjarg
HATHAT
Clean sheets011011
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricNotoddenBjarg
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricNotoddenBjarg
Wins12
Draws00
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins—0-13-10-2
Biggest losses1-2—1-2—
Goals For1232
Goals Against2220

Model comparison

MetricNotoddenBjarg
Form40%60%
Att40%60%
Def43%57%
Poisson Distribution0%100%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total41.0%59.0%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Venue page • Notodden vs Bjarg
footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Notodden
vs
Bjarg
2. Division - Group 1 • Norway • Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 • Idrettsparken Notodden
Expected goals
0.52
Notodden xG League Avg: 1.93
Total
3.43
2.91
Bjarg xG League Avg: 1.37
1x2 probabilities
Home
4.1%
Draw
10.3%
Away
78.1%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 2
13.7%
Tip
0 - 3
13.3%
Tip
0 - 4
9.7%
More chances
1.5+
76%
Chance
2.5+
53%
Chance
3.5+
38%
Chance
BTTS
74%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 4
Exp.
#Notodden #Bjarg #2DivisionGroup1 #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Notodden = 0.52 (league 1.93), Bjarg = 2.91 (league 1.37)

Bjarg
0 1 2 3 4 5
Notodden 0 3.2% 9.4% 13.7% 13.3% 9.7% 5.6%
1 1.7% 4.9% 7.1% 6.9% 5.0% 2.9%
2 0.4% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8%
3 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 4.1% · Draw 10.3% · Away win 78.1%

vtt 1 , vtd1