Sat, Apr 11 2026 • 18:30 •
Estadio Tres de Febrero
Expected Goals
1.24 (league 1.05)
0.18 (league 0.68)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 64.7% | 30.0% | 5.2% |
best score tips
1 - 0
30.1%
0 - 0
24.3%
2 - 0
18.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Patronato | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Almagro | 0 | 24.3% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 30.1% | 5.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.6% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Almagro | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 27% |
| Attack | 31% | 15% |
| Defense | 69% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
40%
FT probability
2.5+
28%
FT probability
3.5+
20%
FT probability
BTTS
39%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Almagro | Patronato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wins | 67% | 0% | 29% | 33% | 0% | 14% |
| Draws | 0% | 50% | 29% | 0% | 50% | 29% |
| Loses | 33% | 50% | 43% | 67% | 50% | 57% |
Form: Almagro: DLLDWWL • Patronato: DLDLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Almagro | Patronato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| GA total | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Almagro | Patronato | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 43% | 57% | 29% | 57% |
| 1.5 | 14% | 14% | 14% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Almagro | Patronato | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Almagro | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Almagro | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | — | 2-0 | — |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Almagro | Patronato |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 64% | 36% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 63.2% | 36.8% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : Almagro or draw and -3.5 goals
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.40 @ Pinnacle
Draw2.80 @ Unibet
Away3.91 @ Pinnacle
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.53.47 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.51.35 @ Unibet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.62 @ Bet365
No1.52 @ Unibet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Almagro
vs
Patronato
Expected goals
1.24
Almagro xG
League Avg: 1.05
Total
1.41
0.18
Patronato xG
League Avg: 0.68
1x2 probabilities
Home
64.7%
Draw
30.0%
Away
5.2%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
30.1%
Tip
0 - 0
24.3%
Tip
2 - 0
18.6%
More chances
1.5+
40%
Chance
2.5+
28%
Chance
3.5+
20%
Chance
BTTS
39%
Chance
🟨 Cards
3 - 6
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Almagro = 1.24 (league 1.05), Patronato = 0.18 (league 0.68)
| Patronato | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Almagro | 0 | 24.3% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 30.1% | 5.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 18.6% | 3.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 7.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 64.7% · Draw 30.0% · Away win 5.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1