Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 21:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.03 (league 1.48)
0.97 (league 0.74)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 60.1% | 20.8% | 17.2% |
best score tips
2 - 0
10.3%
1 - 0
10.1%
2 - 1
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Marquense | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guastatoya | 0 | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.1% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.3% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Guastatoya +26.2, Marquense +29.9.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Guastatoya
vs
Marquense
Elo gapMarquense +1
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo2990.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2990.3
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1477.3 | 1513 |
| Form Elo | 1489.8 | 1542.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1488.5 | 1446.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1441.7 | 1416.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1488.1 | 1578.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +26.2 | +29.9 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Guastatoya last-5 Elo change: +26.2; Marquense last-5 Elo change: +29.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 62% | 46% |
| Defense | 69% | 85% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 2 | 0.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
65%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
3-6
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 21 | 21 | 42 | 22 | 21 | 43 |
| Wins | 43% | 19% | 31% | 59% | 10% | 35% |
| Draws | 24% | 29% | 26% | 27% | 14% | 21% |
| Loses | 33% | 52% | 43% | 14% | 76% | 44% |
GuastatoyaLLDLLLLLLWDWLDWLWWLWLDWDDLWDLWLLDLWWDDLWDW
MarquenseLDDWLWLWLLLDWLWLWDDLLLLWLDLLWLDLDWWWLWWLWWD
League goals
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 31 | 17 | 48 | 28 | 13 | 41 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 25 | 32 | 57 | 15 | 42 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Guastatoya | Marquense | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 71% | 65% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 43% | 19% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 14% | 17% | 9% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 2% | 0% | 2% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 14 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
Penalties
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 5-0 | 0-2 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Guastatoya | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 67% | 33% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 71% | 29% |
| Total | 57.2% | 42.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Guastatoya
vs
Marquense
Expected goals
2.03
Guastatoya xG
League Avg: 1.48
Total
3.00
0.97
Marquense xG
League Avg: 0.74
1x2 probabilities
Home
60.1%
Draw
20.8%
Away
17.2%
Best score tips
Tip
2 - 0
10.3%
Tip
1 - 0
10.1%
Tip
2 - 1
10.0%
More chances
1.5+
72%
Chance
2.5+
51%
Chance
3.5+
36%
Chance
BTTS
65%
Chance
🟨 Cards
3 - 6
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Guastatoya = 2.03 (league 1.48), Marquense = 0.97 (league 0.74)
| Marquense | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guastatoya | 0 | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.1% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.3% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 6.9% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 60.1% · Draw 20.8% · Away win 17.2%
vtt 1 , vtd1