Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Sweden
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Kumla

—

Vänersborgs FK

Expected Goals
0.88 (league 1.71) 0.17 (league 1.45)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
52.3% 40.6% 7.1%
best score tips
0 - 0
35.1%
1 - 0
30.7%
2 - 0
13.4%
Score & goals probability table
Vänersborgs FK
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kumla 0 35.1% 6.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 30.7% 5.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.4% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home edge

Kumla carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 56 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kumla +38.6, Vänersborgs FK +26.5.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Kumla Elo 1505.6 · +38.6
vs
Vänersborgs FK Elo 1484.6 · +26.5
Elo gapKumla +56
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2990.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2990.2
Elo home share 58%
Match tone Upset Watch
Metric Kumla Vänersborgs FK
Overall Elo1505.61484.6
Form Elo1563.31516.8
Home / Away Elo1484.51494.2
Attack Elo1494.91404
Defense Elo1413.71517.4
Last 5 Elo change+38.6+26.5

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Kumla last-5 Elo change: +38.6; Vänersborgs FK last-5 Elo change: +26.5.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricKumlaVänersborgs FK
Played44
Form83%58%
Attack57%36%
Defense79%71%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 25 | 1.3
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.84 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

61%
FT probability

2.5+

43%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

74%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Kumla Vänersborgs FK
HATHAT
Played224224
Wins50%100%75%100%0%50%
Draws50%0%25%0%50%25%
Loses0%0%0%0%50%25%
KumlaWWWD
Vänersborgs FKLWDW

League goals

Metric Kumla Vänersborgs FK
HATHAT
GF total358415
GF avg1.52.52.02.00.51.3
GA total123224
GA avg0.51.00.81.01.01.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineKumlaVänersborgs FK
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%75%75%100%
1.575%0%50%0%
2.525%0%0%0%
3.50%0%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricKumlaVänersborgs FK
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score000011

Penalties

MetricKumlaVänersborgs FK
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricKumlaVänersborgs FK
Wins31
Draws01
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-01-32-1—
Biggest losses———1-0
Goals For2321
Goals Against1111

Model comparison

MetricKumlaVänersborgs FK
Form59%41%
Att62%38%
Def57%43%
Poisson Distribution84%16%
H2h60%40%
Goals63%37%
Total64.2%35.8%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

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League page • Country page • Kumla vs Vänersborgs FK
footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Kumla
vs
Vänersborgs FK
Division 2 - Norra Götaland • Sweden • Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 • Venue TBA
Expected goals
0.88
Kumla xG League Avg: 1.71
Total
1.05
0.17
Vänersborgs FK xG League Avg: 1.45
1x2 probabilities
Home
52.3%
Draw
40.6%
Away
7.1%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
35.1%
Tip
1 - 0
30.7%
Tip
2 - 0
13.4%
More chances
1.5+
61%
Chance
2.5+
43%
Chance
3.5+
31%
Chance
BTTS
74%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
#Kumla #VänersborgsFk #Division2NorraGötaland #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Kumla = 0.88 (league 1.71), Vänersborgs FK = 0.17 (league 1.45)

Vänersborgs FK
0 1 2 3 4 5
Kumla 0 35.1% 6.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 30.7% 5.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2 13.4% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3 3.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 52.3% · Draw 40.6% · Away win 7.1%

vtt 1 , vtd1