Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 18:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.59 (league 1.36)
0.61 (league 0.99)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.4% | 42.1% | 29.5% |
best score tips
0 - 0
30.3%
0 - 1
18.4%
1 - 0
17.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Gimnasia La Plata Res. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Estudiantes La Plata Res | 0 | 30.3% | 18.4% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Gimnasia La Plata Res. carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 38 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Estudiantes La Plata Res -20.0, Gimnasia La Plata Res. -9.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Estudiantes La Plata Res
vs
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Elo gapGimnasia La Plata Res. +38
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo3040.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3040.5
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia La Plata Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1483.7 | 1556.8 |
| Form Elo | 1467 | 1554.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.5 | 1524.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1479.1 | 1569.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1574.4 | 1565 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -20.0 | -9.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Estudiantes La Plata Res last-5 Elo change: -20.0; Gimnasia La Plata Res. last-5 Elo change: -9.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia La Plata Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 40% |
| Attack | 25% | 88% |
| Defense | 50% | 25% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
56%
FT probability
2.5+
40%
FT probability
3.5+
28%
FT probability
BTTS
51%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Wins | 50% | 0% | 22% | 20% | 75% | 44% |
| Draws | 25% | 40% | 33% | 40% | 0% | 22% |
| Loses | 25% | 60% | 44% | 40% | 25% | 33% |
Estudiantes La Plata ResDDWLWLLLD
Gimnasia La Plata Res.WDWDLLWLW
League goals
| Metric | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 1 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| GA avg | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 44% | 44% | 78% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 11% | 22% | 44% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 11% | 0% | 22% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia La Plata Res. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia La Plata Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia La Plata Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | — | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-1 | 2-1 | 2-3 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Estudiantes La Plata Res | Gimnasia La Plata Res. |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 40% | 60% |
| Att | 22% | 78% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 49% | 51% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 70% | 30% |
| Total | 52.0% | 48.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Estudiantes La Plata Res
vs
Gimnasia La Plata Res.
Expected goals
0.59
Estudiantes La Plata Res xG
League Avg: 1.36
Total
1.19
0.61
Gimnasia La Plata Res. xG
League Avg: 0.99
1x2 probabilities
Home
28.4%
Draw
42.1%
Away
29.5%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
30.3%
Tip
0 - 1
18.4%
Tip
1 - 0
17.8%
More chances
1.5+
56%
Chance
2.5+
40%
Chance
3.5+
28%
Chance
BTTS
51%
Chance
🟨 Cards
0 - 0
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Estudiantes La Plata Res = 0.59 (league 1.36), Gimnasia La Plata Res. = 0.61 (league 0.99)
| Gimnasia La Plata Res. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Estudiantes La Plata Res | 0 | 30.3% | 18.4% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 17.8% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 28.4% · Draw 42.1% · Away win 29.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1