Premier League — Uganda
Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 13:00 • FUFA Technical Centre
Not Started

BUL

—

UPDF

Expected Goals
1.65 (league 1.34) 0.75 (league 0.84)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
58.3% 24.3% 16.7%
best score tips
1 - 0
15.0%
2 - 0
12.4%
1 - 1
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
UPDF
0 1 2 3 4 5
BUL 0 9.1% 6.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 15.0% 11.2% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.4% 9.3% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 6.8% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Home strong edge

BUL carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 167 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: BUL -2.0, UPDF -3.9.

Strong confidence Upset risk: Low Elo standalone
BUL Elo 1562.1 · -2.0
vs
UPDF Elo 1430.5 · -3.9
Elo gapBUL +167
Home / draw / away59% / 18% / 23%
Expected home share72%
Combined Elo2992.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Home strong edge
Confidence band Strong confidence
Upset risk Low
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2992.6
Elo home share 72%
Match tone Heavy Favorite
Metric BUL UPDF
Overall Elo1562.11430.5
Form Elo1564.21413.5
Home / Away Elo1531.71478.5
Attack Elo1523.21432.7
Defense Elo1617.91490.6
Last 5 Elo change-2.0-3.9

This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. BUL last-5 Elo change: -2.0; UPDF last-5 Elo change: -3.9.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBULUPDF
Played55
Form53%33%
Attack70%50%
Defense70%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.65 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

62%
FT probability

2.5+

44%
FT probability

3.5+

31%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric BUL UPDF
HATHAT
Played111223121123
Wins36%33%35%17%18%17%
Draws36%25%30%25%18%22%
Loses27%42%35%58%64%61%
BULDWDWDDLLLLLWWLWDLWWWDLD
UPDFLWLLLWLLWDDLLLLDLLDLDWL

League goals

Metric BUL UPDF
HATHAT
GF total1411259817
GF avg1.30.91.10.80.70.7
GA total101222121931
GA avg0.91.01.01.01.71.3

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBULUPDF
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.574%61%52%74%
1.517%26%17%35%
2.59%9%4%13%
3.54%0%0%9%
4.54%0%0%4%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBULUPDF
HATHAT
Clean sheets549336
Failed to score4266511

Penalties

MetricBULUPDF
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricBULUPDF
Wins31
Draws22
Losses54

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-23-10-1
Biggest losses1-33-11-25-1
Goals For5232
Goals Against3325

Model comparison

MetricBULUPDF
Form62%38%
Att58%42%
Def63%38%
Poisson Distribution67%33%
H2h40%60%
Goals36%64%
Total54.3%45.8%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Venue page • BUL vs UPDF
footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

BUL
vs
UPDF
Premier League • Uganda • Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 13:00 • FUFA Technical Centre
Expected goals
1.65
BUL xG League Avg: 1.34
Total
2.40
0.75
UPDF xG League Avg: 0.84
1x2 probabilities
Home
58.3%
Draw
24.3%
Away
16.7%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 0
15.0%
Tip
2 - 0
12.4%
Tip
1 - 1
11.2%
More chances
1.5+
62%
Chance
2.5+
44%
Chance
3.5+
31%
Chance
BTTS
59%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
#Bul #Updf #PremierLeague #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): BUL = 1.65 (league 1.34), UPDF = 0.75 (league 0.84)

UPDF
0 1 2 3 4 5
BUL 0 9.1% 6.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
1 15.0% 11.2% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
2 12.4% 9.3% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
3 6.8% 5.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 58.3% · Draw 24.3% · Away win 16.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1