J2/J3 League
— Japan
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 05:00 •
Fujieda soccer stadium
Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.27)
2.25 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 26.2% | 20.1% | 50.4% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.7%
1 - 1
7.7%
2 - 2
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Omiya Ardija | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fujieda MYFC | 0 | 2.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Omiya Ardija carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 22 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fujieda MYFC +11.8, Omiya Ardija -15.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Fujieda MYFC
vs
Omiya Ardija
Elo gapOmiya Ardija +22
Home / draw / away34% / 28% / 38%
Expected home share47%
Combined Elo2997.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2997.3
Elo home share
47%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Fujieda MYFC | Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1470.4 | 1526.9 |
| Form Elo | 1489.6 | 1527.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1483 | 1519.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1459.8 | 1622.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1497.5 | 1493.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +11.8 | -15.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Fujieda MYFC last-5 Elo change: +11.8; Omiya Ardija last-5 Elo change: -15.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fujieda MYFC | Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Attack | 62% | 77% |
| Defense | 38% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
93%
FT probability
2.5+
65%
FT probability
3.5+
46%
FT probability
BTTS
83%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
2-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fujieda MYFC | Omiya Ardija | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 6 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 33% | 100% | 64% | 67% | 40% | 55% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 67% | 0% | 36% | 33% | 60% | 45% |
Fujieda MYFCLWLWWWWLLWW
Omiya ArdijaWWWWLLWLWLL
League goals
| Metric | Fujieda MYFC | Omiya Ardija | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 6 | 11 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 9 | 6 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 17 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fujieda MYFC | Omiya Ardija | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 82% | 100% | 82% |
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% | 55% | 55% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 9% | 36% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 0% | 18% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 9% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fujieda MYFC | Omiya Ardija | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fujieda MYFC | Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fujieda MYFC | Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 3-4 | 6-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | — | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fujieda MYFC | Omiya Ardija |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 44% | 56% |
| Def | 53% | 47% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 40% | 60% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 47.3% | 52.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Fujieda MYFC
vs
Omiya Ardija
Expected goals
1.57
Fujieda MYFC xG
League Avg: 1.27
Total
3.83
2.25
Omiya Ardija xG
League Avg: 1.20
1x2 probabilities
Home
26.2%
Draw
20.1%
Away
50.4%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 2
8.7%
Tip
1 - 1
7.7%
Tip
2 - 2
6.8%
More chances
1.5+
93%
Chance
2.5+
65%
Chance
3.5+
46%
Chance
BTTS
83%
Chance
🟨 Cards
2 - 2
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Fujieda MYFC = 1.57 (league 1.27), Omiya Ardija = 2.25 (league 1.20)
| Omiya Ardija | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fujieda MYFC | 0 | 2.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 3.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 2.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.2% · Draw 20.1% · Away win 50.4%
vtt 1 , vtd1