J2/J3 League
— Japan
Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 05:00 •
Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu
Expected Goals
1.26 (league 1.27)
1.50 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.6% | 25.3% | 42.5% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.0%
0 - 1
9.5%
1 - 2
9.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Renofa Yamaguchi | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kitakyushu | 0 | 6.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Kitakyushu carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 64 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Kitakyushu +3.3, Renofa Yamaguchi +5.1.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Kitakyushu
vs
Renofa Yamaguchi
Elo gapKitakyushu +64
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo2930.1
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2930.1
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Kitakyushu | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1479.4 | 1450.7 |
| Form Elo | 1468.9 | 1457.6 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1465.9 | 1471.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1449.6 | 1412.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1552.4 | 1510.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +3.3 | +5.1 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Kitakyushu last-5 Elo change: +3.3; Renofa Yamaguchi last-5 Elo change: +5.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Kitakyushu | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 60% |
| Attack | 38% | 54% |
| Defense | 77% | 46% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Kitakyushu | Renofa Yamaguchi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| Wins | 20% | 33% | 27% | 67% | 40% | 55% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 80% | 67% | 73% | 33% | 60% | 45% |
KitakyushuLLLLLLWWLLW
Renofa YamaguchiLWLLWWLWLWW
League goals
| Metric | Kitakyushu | Renofa Yamaguchi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 5 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 14 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 9 | 9 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| GA avg | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Kitakyushu | Renofa Yamaguchi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 73% | 73% | 64% | 91% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 55% | 55% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 27% | 9% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Kitakyushu | Renofa Yamaguchi | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Kitakyushu | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Kitakyushu | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 6 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 0-2 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-1 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Kitakyushu | Renofa Yamaguchi |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 50.0% | 50.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Kitakyushu
vs
Renofa Yamaguchi
Expected goals
1.26
Kitakyushu xG
League Avg: 1.27
Total
2.76
1.50
Renofa Yamaguchi xG
League Avg: 1.20
1x2 probabilities
Home
31.6%
Draw
25.3%
Away
42.5%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
12.0%
Tip
0 - 1
9.5%
Tip
1 - 2
9.0%
More chances
1.5+
74%
Chance
2.5+
52%
Chance
3.5+
37%
Chance
BTTS
72%
Chance
🟨 Cards
1 - 2
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Kitakyushu = 1.26 (league 1.27), Renofa Yamaguchi = 1.50 (league 1.20)
| Renofa Yamaguchi | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Kitakyushu | 0 | 6.3% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 31.6% · Draw 25.3% · Away win 42.5%
vtt 1 , vtd1