Third League - Northeast — Bulgaria
Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 13:00 • Venue TBA
Not Started

Botev Novi Pazar

—

Olympic Varna

Expected Goals
1.97 (league 1.85) 1.69 (league 1.49)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
43.2% 21.5% 33.0%
best score tips
1 - 1
8.6%
2 - 1
8.4%
1 - 2
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
Olympic Varna
0 1 2 3 4 5
Botev Novi Pazar 0 2.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
1 5.1% 8.6% 7.3% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6%
2 5.0% 8.4% 7.1% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6%
3 3.3% 5.5% 4.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
4 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
FootyWow Elo verdict

Away edge

Olympic Varna carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 54 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Botev Novi Pazar +22.2, Olympic Varna -1.2.

Medium confidence Upset risk: Medium Elo standalone
Botev Novi Pazar Elo 1373.5 · +22.2
vs
Olympic Varna Elo 1462.5 · -1.2
Elo gapOlympic Varna +54
Home / draw / away32% / 24% / 44%
Expected home share42%
Combined Elo2836
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge Away edge
Confidence band Medium confidence
Upset risk Medium
Model agreement Elo standalone
Combined Elo 2836
Elo home share 42%
Match tone Tactical Watch
Metric Botev Novi Pazar Olympic Varna
Overall Elo1373.51462.5
Form Elo1385.71459
Home / Away Elo1437.81492.4
Attack Elo1408.31498.3
Defense Elo1260.31298.5
Last 5 Elo change+22.2-1.2

The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Botev Novi Pazar last-5 Elo change: +22.2; Olympic Varna last-5 Elo change: -1.2.

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBotev Novi PazarOlympic Varna
Played55
Form27%33%
Attack24%43%
Defense57%14%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 19 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.818 | 3.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

74%
FT probability

3.5+

53%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

na
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Botev Novi Pazar Olympic Varna
HATHAT
Played121224131225
Wins33%8%21%38%25%32%
Draws25%8%17%15%33%24%
Loses42%83%63%46%42%44%
Botev Novi PazarLLLWLWLLDLLDLDLLLWWLLDLW
Olympic VarnaLWWDLLDLDWDLLLWWLWWLLDDLW

League goals

Metric Botev Novi Pazar Olympic Varna
HATHAT
GF total16521321749
GF avg1.30.40.92.51.42.0
GA total213051293362
GA avg1.82.52.12.22.82.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBotev Novi PazarOlympic Varna
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.558%83%76%84%
1.525%67%52%64%
2.54%42%32%40%
3.50%13%8%28%
4.50%4%4%12%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBotev Novi PazarOlympic Varna
HATHAT
Clean sheets314224
Failed to score2810336

Penalties

MetricBotev Novi PazarOlympic Varna
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total00

Streaks

MetricBotev Novi PazarOlympic Varna
Wins22
Draws12
Losses33

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-211-01-3
Biggest losses0-36-02-78-0
Goals For32113
Goals Against4678

Model comparison

MetricBotev Novi PazarOlympic Varna
Form44%56%
Att36%64%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h0%100%
Goals0%100%
Total49.5%50.5%
💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

No odds available for this fixture.

📊

League standings

Loading standings…
League page • Country page • Botev Novi Pazar vs Olympic Varna
footywow.com

Prediction and Tips for:

Botev Novi Pazar
vs
Olympic Varna
Third League - Northeast • Bulgaria • Wed, Apr 22 2026 • 13:00 • Venue TBA
Expected goals
1.97
Botev Novi Pazar xG League Avg: 1.85
Total
3.66
1.69
Olympic Varna xG League Avg: 1.49
1x2 probabilities
Home
43.2%
Draw
21.5%
Away
33.0%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 1
8.6%
Tip
2 - 1
8.4%
Tip
1 - 2
7.3%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
74%
Chance
3.5+
53%
Chance
BTTS
77%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
#BotevNoviPazar #OlympicVarna #ThirdLeagueNortheast #footballpredictions #footywow

Expected goals (λ): Botev Novi Pazar = 1.97 (league 1.85), Olympic Varna = 1.69 (league 1.49)

Olympic Varna
0 1 2 3 4 5
Botev Novi Pazar 0 2.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.3%
1 5.1% 8.6% 7.3% 4.1% 1.7% 0.6%
2 5.0% 8.4% 7.1% 4.0% 1.7% 0.6%
3 3.3% 5.5% 4.7% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4%
4 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2%
5 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 43.2% · Draw 21.5% · Away win 33.0%

vtt 1 , vtd1