Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 10:00 •
Erzgebirgsstadion
Expected Goals
1.07 (league 2.14)
2.04 (league 1.80)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 19.0% | 20.9% | 58.1% |
best score tips
1 - 2
9.9%
1 - 1
9.7%
0 - 2
9.3%
Score & goals probability table
| Carl Zeiss Jena U19 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Erzgebirge Aue U19 | 0 | 4.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 28 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Erzgebirge Aue U19 +26.4, Carl Zeiss Jena U19 +50.5.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Erzgebirge Aue U19
vs
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
Elo gapCarl Zeiss Jena U19 +28
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3028.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3028.7
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Erzgebirge Aue U19 | Carl Zeiss Jena U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1482.8 | 1545.9 |
| Form Elo | 1487.3 | 1567.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1501.1 | 1533.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1556.5 | 1666.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1374.1 | 1405.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +26.4 | +50.5 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Erzgebirge Aue U19 last-5 Elo change: +26.4; Carl Zeiss Jena U19 last-5 Elo change: +50.5.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Erzgebirge Aue U19 | Carl Zeiss Jena U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 100% |
| Attack | 0% | 0% |
| Defense | 0% | 0% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 17 | 3.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
75%
FT probability
3.5+
53%
FT probability
BTTS
81%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Erzgebirge Aue U19 | Carl Zeiss Jena U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 11 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Wins | 30% | 36% | 33% | 50% | 70% | 60% |
| Draws | 20% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 10% | 5% |
| Loses | 50% | 64% | 57% | 50% | 20% | 35% |
Erzgebirge Aue U19LLWLWWLLLDLLWLLWWLWDL
Carl Zeiss Jena U19LWWLLLWLWLWLWDWWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Erzgebirge Aue U19 | Carl Zeiss Jena U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 13 | 32 | 26 | 23 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| GA total | 16 | 28 | 44 | 24 | 12 | 36 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Erzgebirge Aue U19 | Carl Zeiss Jena U19 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 86% | 95% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 57% | 70% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 24% | 50% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 14% | 15% | 20% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Erzgebirge Aue U19 | Carl Zeiss Jena U19 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Erzgebirge Aue U19 | Carl Zeiss Jena U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Erzgebirge Aue U19 | Carl Zeiss Jena U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 1-3 | 6-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 8-0 | 1-5 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Erzgebirge Aue U19 | Carl Zeiss Jena U19 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 32% | 68% |
| Att | 35% | 65% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 20% | 80% |
| Goals | 31% | 69% |
| Total | 31.7% | 68.5% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Erzgebirge Aue U19
vs
Carl Zeiss Jena U19
Expected goals
1.07
Erzgebirge Aue U19 xG
League Avg: 2.14
Total
3.11
2.04
Carl Zeiss Jena U19 xG
League Avg: 1.80
1x2 probabilities
Home
19.0%
Draw
20.9%
Away
58.1%
Best score tips
Tip
1 - 2
9.9%
Tip
1 - 1
9.7%
Tip
0 - 2
9.3%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
75%
Chance
3.5+
53%
Chance
BTTS
81%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Erzgebirge Aue U19 = 1.07 (league 2.14), Carl Zeiss Jena U19 = 2.04 (league 1.80)
| Carl Zeiss Jena U19 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Erzgebirge Aue U19 | 0 | 4.5% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 19.0% · Draw 20.9% · Away win 58.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1