Esiliiga B
— Estonia
Thu, Apr 23 2026 • 16:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
3.66 (league 2.21)
0.48 (league 1.88)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 75.6% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
best score tips
3 - 0
13.0%
4 - 0
11.9%
2 - 0
10.6%
Score & goals probability table
| Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tulevik | 0 | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.6% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 11.9% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 8.7% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Tulevik carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 38 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Tulevik -12.3, Parnu JK Vaprus U21 +0.1.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Tulevik
vs
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Elo gapTulevik +38
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo2983.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2983.8
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Tulevik | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1493.2 | 1490.6 |
| Form Elo | 1474.4 | 1488.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1501.1 | 1493.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1605.2 | 1514 |
| Defense Elo | 1387.7 | 1460.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -12.3 | +0.1 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Tulevik last-5 Elo change: -12.3; Parnu JK Vaprus U21 last-5 Elo change: +0.1.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Tulevik | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 47% |
| Attack | 100% | 50% |
| Defense | 17% | 17% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
81%
FT probability
3.5+
58%
FT probability
BTTS
78%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Tulevik | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Wins | 50% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 17% |
| Loses | 50% | 50% | 50% | 0% | 67% | 33% |
TulevikWWWLLL
Parnu JK Vaprus U21WLLWWD
League goals
| Metric | Tulevik | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 12 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| GF avg | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 5 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Tulevik | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 83% | 67% | 100% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | 50% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 33% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
| 4.5 | 33% | 17% | 17% | 17% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Tulevik | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Penalties
| Metric | Tulevik | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Tulevik | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 0 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 1-2 | 5-1 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-4 | — | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Tulevik | Parnu JK Vaprus U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 46% | 54% |
| Att | 67% | 33% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 85% | 15% |
| H2h | 0% | 0% |
| Goals | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 62.0% | 38.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Tulevik
vs
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
Expected goals
3.66
Tulevik xG
League Avg: 2.21
Total
4.14
0.48
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 xG
League Avg: 1.88
1x2 probabilities
Home
75.6%
Draw
5.9%
Away
2.1%
Best score tips
Tip
3 - 0
13.0%
Tip
4 - 0
11.9%
Tip
2 - 0
10.6%
More chances
1.5+
95%
Chance
2.5+
81%
Chance
3.5+
58%
Chance
BTTS
78%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Tulevik = 3.66 (league 2.21), Parnu JK Vaprus U21 = 0.48 (league 1.88)
| Parnu JK Vaprus U21 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Tulevik | 0 | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.6% | 5.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 13.0% | 6.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 11.9% | 5.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 8.7% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 75.6% · Draw 5.9% · Away win 2.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1