Tue, Apr 21 2026 • 19:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
0.86 (league 1.63)
0.69 (league 1.17)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 37.0% | 35.9% | 27.1% |
best score tips
0 - 0
21.4%
1 - 0
18.3%
0 - 1
14.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Palmeiras W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fluminense W | 0 | 21.4% | 14.7% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.8% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Palmeiras W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 26 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fluminense W +29.9, Palmeiras W +15.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Fluminense W
vs
Palmeiras W
Elo gapPalmeiras W +26
Home / draw / away34% / 27% / 39%
Expected home share46%
Combined Elo3089.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3089.3
Elo home share
46%
Match tone
Upset Watch
| Metric | Fluminense W | Palmeiras W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1514.4 | 1574.9 |
| Form Elo | 1558.4 | 1582.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.5 | 1542.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1478.8 | 1708 |
| Defense Elo | 1523.5 | 1517.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +29.9 | +15.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Fluminense W last-5 Elo change: +29.9; Palmeiras W last-5 Elo change: +15.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fluminense W | Palmeiras W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 53% | 67% |
| Attack | 40% | 80% |
| Defense | 67% | 53% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
69%
FT probability
2.5+
48%
FT probability
3.5+
34%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fluminense W | Palmeiras W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Wins | 67% | 33% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 67% |
| Draws | 33% | 33% | 33% | 25% | 0% | 17% |
| Loses | 0% | 33% | 17% | 0% | 50% | 17% |
Fluminense WWDWDLW
Palmeiras WWWWWLD
League goals
| Metric | Fluminense W | Palmeiras W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 16 |
| GF avg | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| GA total | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| GA avg | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fluminense W | Palmeiras W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 83% | 33% | 83% | 67% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 17% | 50% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 17% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fluminense W | Palmeiras W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fluminense W | Palmeiras W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fluminense W | Palmeiras W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 1-0 | 0-1 | 6-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 3-2 | — | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fluminense W | Palmeiras W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 58% | 42% |
| Poisson Distribution | 100% | 0% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 47.0% | 53.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home7.50 @ Unibet
Draw4.30 @ Marathonbet
Away1.51 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.10 @ Bet365
No1.85 @ William Hill
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.85 @ Bet365
Under 2.51.95 @ Bet365
📊
League standings
Loading standings…
footywow.com
Prediction and Tips for:
Fluminense W
vs
Palmeiras W
Expected goals
0.86
Fluminense W xG
League Avg: 1.63
Total
1.54
0.69
Palmeiras W xG
League Avg: 1.17
1x2 probabilities
Home
37.0%
Draw
35.9%
Away
27.1%
Best score tips
Tip
0 - 0
21.4%
Tip
1 - 0
18.3%
Tip
0 - 1
14.7%
More chances
1.5+
69%
Chance
2.5+
48%
Chance
3.5+
34%
Chance
BTTS
58%
Chance
🟨 Cards
—
Exp.
Expected goals (λ): Fluminense W = 0.86 (league 1.63), Palmeiras W = 0.69 (league 1.17)
| Palmeiras W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fluminense W | 0 | 21.4% | 14.7% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 7.8% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 37.0% · Draw 35.9% · Away win 27.1%
vtt 1 , vtd1