EFL Trophy — England
Wed, Mar 4 2026 • 19:30 • Kenilworth Road
Not Started
—
Expected Goals
0.67 (league 2.08) 0.93 (league 1.61)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
25.2% 34.9% 39.8%
best score tips
0 - 0
20.2%
0 - 1
18.7%
1 - 0
13.6%
Score & goals probability table
Northampton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Luton 0 20.2% 18.7% 8.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.6% 12.6% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.6% 4.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricLutonNorthampton
Played55
Form60%100%
Attack58%58%
Defense63%79%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.211 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.44 | 0.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

90%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

1 - 2 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Luton Northampton
HATHAT
Played516426
Wins80%0%67%100%100%100%
Draws0%0%0%0%0%0%
Loses20%100%33%0%0%0%

Form: Luton: WLWWLW • Northampton: WWWWWW

League goals

Metric Luton Northampton
HATHAT
GF total1411511314
GF avg2.81.02.52.81.52.3
GA total538314
GA avg1.03.01.30.80.50.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineLutonNorthampton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%83%100%50%
1.567%33%83%17%
2.550%17%33%0%
3.533%0%17%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricLutonNorthampton
HATHAT
Clean sheets101213
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricLutonNorthampton
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total42

Streaks

MetricLutonNorthampton
Wins26
Draws00
Losses10

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-0—3-01-2
Biggest losses1-23-1——
Goals For4142
Goals Against2321

Model comparison

MetricLutonNorthampton
Form38%63%
Att50%50%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution40%60%
H2h71%29%
Goals67%33%
Total50.3%49.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Northampton

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.56 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.05 @ Marathonbet
Away6.00 @ Bet365

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.73 @ Betfair
Under 2.52.10 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.00 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Luton = 0.67 (league 2.08), Northampton = 0.93 (league 1.61)

Northampton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Luton 0 20.2% 18.7% 8.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1%
1 13.6% 12.6% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
2 4.6% 4.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 25.2% · Draw 34.9% · Away win 39.8%

vtt 1 , vtd1