EFL Trophy
— England
Wed, Mar 4 2026 • 19:30 •
Kenilworth Road
Expected Goals
0.67 (league 2.10)
0.95 (league 1.58)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 24.6% | 34.6% | 40.8% |
best score tips
0 - 0
19.9%
0 - 1
18.9%
1 - 0
13.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Northampton | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Luton | 0 | 19.9% | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Luton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 100% |
| Attack | 79% | 79% |
| Defense | 50% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 4 | 0.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.30
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
90%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Luton | Northampton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 5 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Wins | 80% | 0% | 67% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Draws | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Loses | 20% | 100% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
LutonWLWWLW
NorthamptonWWWWWW
League goals
| Metric | Luton | Northampton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 14 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 14 |
| GF avg | 2.8 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| GA total | 5 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Luton | Northampton | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 100% | 83% | 100% | 50% |
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 17% | 33% | 0% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 0% | 17% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Luton | Northampton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penalties
| Metric | Luton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Luton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | — | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-1 | — | — |
| Goals For | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Luton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 38% | 63% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 36% | 64% |
| Poisson Distribution | 40% | 60% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 50.3% | 49.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.57 @ 10Bet
Draw4.19 @ Pinnacle
Away6.00 @ Bet365
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.75 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.10 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.81 @ Pinnacle
No2.01 @ Pinnacle
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League standings
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